Here's a tweet and chart for each of the 15 ideas 🧵
1/ Deep learning to create $30T of market value by 2037
• Automated code writing
• AI that "understands" language (GPT-3)
• Big Tech spends billions on AI chips, everyone benefits
2/ Data centres will be totally transformed
• Intel (which powers 90% of data centres) has fallen behind
• Next-gen data centres/PCs will run on ARM standard
• GPUs (workhorse for AI) hits run rate of $41B in 2030
3/ Virtual world revenue hits $390B by 2025 (>2x today)
• Video game monetization shifting to in-app purchases
• Games are 3rd places (people spend 90m a day gaming in 2025)
• AR market (Snap, FB, Apple) set to explode
• Cost of VR (visual immersion) plummeting
4/ Digital wallets are a $4.6T opportunity
• In US, digital wallets surpassing bank account holders
• Digital wallet CAC lower than banks
• Fully featured digital wallet (ecomm, payments, insurance, credit, brokerage) worth $20k/user
• 230m Americans x $20k/user = $4.6T
5/ Bitcoin increases by +$40k if S&P 500 companies put 1% of their balance sheet cash to BTC
• Square, Tesla and Microstrategy set the precedent
• If S&P 500 companies make 10% of balance sheet cash, BTC rises by +$400k
6/ Mainstreaming of BTC makes it worth up to $5T
• BTC trading volume approaching large cap stocks
• Institutions have options to access BTC (e.g., CME futures)
• If institutional money (HNW, Pensions, SWF, Insurance) allocate 2.5%-6.5% to BTC, its price could rise $200k-500k
7/ EV sales will explode 20x: 2m (today) to 40m (2025)
• Total like-for-like EV ownership fell below Toyota Camry in 2019 (the sticker price will do same by 2025)
• "cell-to-vehicle" battery designs will increase volume density by 50% and further drop costs
8/ Automation adds 5% (~$1.2T) to US GDP in next 5yrs
• Rate of automation in next 5yrs = past 25yrs
• Industrial robot demands has hit an inflection point (willing to pay upfront cost for automation)
• More automation = higher productivity = higher wages = lower prices
9/ Autonomous ride-hailing profits $1T per year by 2030
• Ride hailing already $150B industry
• Improvements in AV make economics of robotaxis work
• Cost per mile of personally owned vehicle plummeting ($1.70 on a horse, 1871 vs. $0.25 for AV, 2025)
10/ Drone drastically reduce transportation costs
• Revenue by 2030: $275B (delivery), $50B (hardware sales), $12B (mapping)
• With improvements in AI and batteries, drones to be cheaper than cars, trucks, bike courier
11/ Orbital space hit $370B annually
• Global connectivity via satellites (provide internet for other 50% of population)
• Hypersonic point-to-point travel (turn 10hr+ flights into 2-3hr flights)
• Re-usable rocket prices dropping (= more satellites)
12/ 3D printing worth $120B by 2025
• Collapses time from design to production
• Shifts power to designers
• Reduces supply chain complexity
• Penetration levels: 50% in prototypes (market potential = $12.5B), 4% in molds/tools ($30B), 1% in end-use parts ($490B)
13/ Next-gen DNA sequencing worth $25B in 2025
• Shift from short-read (SRS) to long-read DNA sequencing (LRS) powers genomics revolution
• Bigger toolkit gives richer view into biology
• Used to be trade-off between accuracy (SRS) to comprehensiveness (LRS). No more tradeoff
14/ Liquid Biopsies to avert 66k cancer deaths per year
• ML-power DNA sequencing will allow liquid biopsies that can find cancer early (before solid tumor stage)
• Multi-cancer screening prices dropping
• Could prevent 66k deaths a year = 1.4m human life years
15/ TAM for oncology gene therapy rise 20x to $250B+
• This slide made no sense to me but here it is: "ARK Estimates That Allogeneic. Cells And Cellular Immunotherapies Could Create $250 Billion In Incremental Revenues."
16/ Follow @TrungTPhan for other hot business takes (and really dumb memes).
1/ Steve Cohen is the hedge fund manager that owns the New York Mets. Worth $14B, he's also the inspiration behind Bobby Axelrod from the TV show "Billions".
The day-to-day details of Cohen as a trader are quite interesting.
Here some takeaways🧵
2/ The rundown of Cohen's trading tactics come from Andrew Beresin, who worked at Cohen's firm (SAC Capital Advisors) at the turn of the century.
Beresin worked "four feet from Cohen" and has vidid memories of the experience.
3/ The elephant in the room: some of the tactics described led to an insider trading scandal.
◻️SAC paid a $1.8B fine for it
◻️ One of SAC's traders (Matthew Martoma) was sentenced to 9yrs in prison
1/ A Redditor who runs in high net worth circles writes on the "gradations of rich".
He explains in minute detail the difference between being worth $10m+ and $1B+.
It' a doozy 🧵
2/ As background: the Redditor says while he's not super rich himself, he counts 8 billionaires as close friends.
He says there are 4 major breaking points of "rich:
◽ $10m-$30m
◽ $30m-$100m
◽ $100m-$1B
◽ $1B+
3/ At $10m to $30m
◽Needs met
◽Fly 1st class
◽Very nice house
◽Live 4/5 star life anywhere
◽ You can surive a financial disaster
◽At lower end, you still have to be "prudent"
◽Business stress remains (never goes away)
◽Banks don't classify you as ultra high net worth