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TheValuesVoter (Also on Threads and BlueSky) Profile picture
@TheValuesVoter
May 10, 2021 • 10 tweets • 4 min read • Read on X
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The biggest immediate danger the GOP faces is not seeing more people of color voting. Their biggest risk is white voters who have a problem with Trump and with the GOP's racism. Which is why you'll be seeing Tim Scott a lot ("Hi! My name is Tim! And the GOP is not racist!")
If you look at the states that have exit polling available for the last three Presidential elections, you'll notice things about the GOP's performance with whites.

NOTE: this has NOTHING to do with the NUMBER of white voters (sorry, Tucker Carlson - no new show idea tonight).
This has only to do with the MARGINS by which GOP Presidential candidates have won or lost white voters in Presidential elections according to exit polls.

In these states, the GOP has done worse, margin-wise, among whites in 2020 than in 2016 and worse in 2016 than in 2012.
Being more specific, in North Carolina, in 2012, Romney won white voters 68-31 (+37). In 2016, Trump won whites in NC 63-32 (+31). And in 2020, he won whites in NC 58-41 (+17).

It's not a question of the number of white voters. It's just that the GOP is doing worse with them.
In Colorado, Romney won white voters in 2012 54-44 (+10). But in 2016, Trump only won white voters in CO 47-45 (+2). And in 2020, he lost white voters in Colorado by 16 points, 41-57 (-16).

They don't like you, sir.
And in Arizona, the land of the suspected bamboo paper ballots, Romney won white voters in 2012 by 62-36 (+26). Trump won whites in AZ by a more modest 54-40 (+14) in 2016. And he won by a much more modest 52-46 in AZ (+6) in 2020.

Trump's problems did not start in 2020.
And so what happened after Trump made a concerted effort to use racist rhetoric, appeal openly to xenophobic fears and to tear open every barely closed racial wound this country has ever had in an attempt to gin up "the base?"

White voters eased away from him all over the place.
This map represents the states in which Trump's margins among white voters DECREASED (again, nothing at all to do with the number of white voters in these states) between 2016 and 2020. Trump won some of these states. But he did worse, margin-wise, in most or all of them.
So, what do the geniuses at GOP Central do when they see that Trump has been costing them votes among the only ethnic group they do well with?

They shout "MORE TRUMP!"

It's comical. And astounding.
Another thing. Notice that this map, or states in which the GOP’s margins with white voters fell between 2016 and 2020, includes every one of the states that Joe Biden flipped from Donald Trump.

Trump barely won in 2016. But in 2020, voters he assumed were with him bolted.

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More from @TheValuesVoter

TheValuesVoter (Also on Threads and BlueSky) Profile picture
Jul 7
Suppose that Kamala Harris were to became the nominee.

Let me tell you exactly how that would play out. If it happens, let’s review this thread in a few months to see if I called it right.
In the same way that a canine absolutely cannot resist the smell of chicken, the bastardized mixture of white grievance and overgrown brattiness that makes up the most vocal and energized faction of “conservative” leadership cannot help but attack black women. It’s instinctive.
I think it’s because a lot of these Tucker Carlson/Marjorie Taylor Greene/Matt Gaetz/TPUSA types are both racist and sexist. And entitled. And, in spite of having been dealt a pretty good hand in life, still resentful.
Read 14 tweets
TheValuesVoter (Also on Threads and BlueSky) Profile picture
Jul 1
7 of the 9 U.S. Supreme Court Justices Would Not Be on the Court if:

Presidential Elections in 3 or fewer states decided by less than 3% had gone the other way

AND/OR

If U.S. Senate Elections in 3 or fewer states decided by less than 3% had gone the other way.

Vote! Image
Here's how YOUR votes, just regular people deciding to vote or not vote in Presidential and U.S. Senate elections, affects who gets onto the Supreme Court for life.

Where they no longer have to answer to anybody and make decisions about all of our lives. Image
Clarence Thomas is currently the ninth longest-tenured Supreme Court Justice in U.S. history.

But if Republicans hadn't narrowly won these three Senate elections in 1988, he would not have gotten confirmed. Image
Read 21 tweets
TheValuesVoter (Also on Threads and BlueSky) Profile picture
Jun 26
Both major political parties have l extreme factions.

I find the Democratic fringe more annoying than scary since they don’t tend to be planning a civil war.

I find the Republican fringe frightening because they seem to be daydreaming about it.

But there’s another difference.
The farthest-left Democrats do not control their party. There have been countless examples over the last few years of a more left-leaning Democrat losing a PRIMARY to a more moderate Democrat.

Ilhan Omar nearly lost the Democratic Primary in Minnesota in 2022.
But on the Republican side, the nuttiest talking, hang-em-high, arrest Fauci, blood of patriots lunatics might not win the General Election. But they’re probably gonna win the Republican Primary.
Read 4 tweets
TheValuesVoter (Also on Threads and BlueSky) Profile picture
Jun 25
The Presidential Election, like every other election, is a job interview. We're down to two candidates, exactly one of whom is going to get the job next January.

Let's look at the candidates on paper.

Age/Medical Information: Image
Criminal History: Image
More Criminal History: Image
Read 8 tweets
TheValuesVoter (Also on Threads and BlueSky) Profile picture
Jun 12
If you look at public polling, the approval ratings for the U.S. Supreme Court have fallen by about 26 points or so in the last three years. A lot of people disapprove of the Court today.

But they don't understand how their own votes in elections shapes the Supreme Court. Image
In the most significant example, the decisions of voters in just three states in the 2016 Presidential Election effectively determined the composition for one-third of the Supreme Court.

Another election in which many people disliked both candidates. And many didn't vote. Image
But it's not just about the Presidential Election. The majority of the Justices on the Supreme Court were confirmed by five votes or less in the U.S. Senate. And every one of those Senators were themselves elected in close elections in which a lot of people didn't vote. Image
Read 10 tweets
TheValuesVoter (Also on Threads and BlueSky) Profile picture
Jun 11
The reason why some people think of Trump as some sort of powerful he-man, which he’s absolutely not, is because many people can’t tell the difference between macho performative crap and actually being a strong, solid man.
Trump is the guy who will flex for the cameras, growl at WWE matches and do all the things that middle school boys who are trying to prove to everyone else that they’re tough do. That’s why he does well with folks who gravitate to hype and showmanship.
But when he has a setback, which, let’s be honest, is usually the result of something he himself did, he just whines like the whiniest whiner who ever whined. “V” for “victim.” The whole world is unfair to him.

But he’s supposedly the man.
Read 9 tweets

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