On the saturation of Iron Dome. "The cost of interception is high. The cost of the interceptor missile is about $40,000-50,000. Furthermore, in some cases, two interceptor missiles are fired at one target, which further raises the cost of interception." inss.org.il/wp-content/upl…
"The system has a “saturation point.” It is capable of engaging a certain (unpublished) number of targets at the same time, and no more. Additional rockets fired in a crowded salvo could succeed in breaching defenses and cause damage" inss.org.il/wp-content/upl…
On Iron Dome's utility: "missile defenses do create conditions for enhanced freedom of action for decision makers–defense systems ensure that they have time, and are not compelled to resort automatically to preemption and retaliation" inss.org.il/wp-content/upl…
Israeli official to RAND: Iron Dome “a blessing because it buys [us] time, but Israel needs an excuse for why they are killing Palestinians in operations..When Iron Dome works so well & so few Israelis die, Israel loses the justification for the operation” rand.org/blog/2017/11/i…
"With Iron Dome reducing the risk to population centers, there was less pressure on political leaders to escalate the conflict .... In retrospect, analysts worry that the shift to a strategy of attrition [in 2014] denied Israel a decisive victory" rand.org/blog/2017/11/i…
Saturation attacks are not new. In 2014 "Hamas also attempted to overwhelm Iron Dome batteries with coordinated salvos, and enlisted regional allies to fire rockets from Lebanon, Syria, and the Sinai, forcing Iron Dome to cover a greater area ..." rand.org/blog/2017/11/i…
"Because so much about Iron Dome is classified, information provided by the Israeli military cannot be independently verified. Analyses performed by outside experts—both those questioning Iron Dome’s efficacy and those defending...claims—are inconclusive" jstor.org/stable/pdf/res…
"As the [Iron Dome] radar is forced to dwell on more rockets in this cycle, it has less time to scan for new objects and has to wait longer before returning to each rocket, which lessens the quality of the trajectory calculation." jstor.org/stable/pdf/res…
A lesson for Hezbollah contingencies. "If there simply aren’t enough Iron Dome batteries to provide protection to military & critical infrastructure while also protecting population centers, the IDF will be forced to pull coverage from population centers" jstor.org/stable/pdf/res…
"Hamas/Hezbollah certainly understand role that Iron Dome has played in the Israeli narrative of its wars & would be quick to exploit Iron Dome’s perceived or real weaknesses for propaganda purposes and to claim to its own people that it achieved victory" jstor.org/stable/pdf/res…
"According to Israeli gov't sources, every day Iron Dome helps to avert war saves appprox 240 million shekels in military expenditures. Moreover, the system’s interceptor is significantly less than the potential damage...in a high-density residential area" fdd.org/wp-content/upl…
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"Over 630 rockets were fired at Israel from Monday evening through Tuesday afternoon, 200 of which were intercepted by Iron Dome missile defense batteries while 150 others fell short of their targets and landed inside the Strip, according to the army." timesofisrael.com/2-killed-by-ro…
"Hamas and the Palestinian Islamic Jihad ... reported that several high-ranking commanders were killed in Israeli raids, including three top PIJ leaders in a drone strike on a building in the upscale Rimal neighborhood of Gaza City." timesofisrael.com/2-killed-by-ro…
"Additionally, the IDF said it killed the head of Islamic Jihad’s special rocket unit, in an operation carried out in cooperation with the Shin Bet. Sameh Abed al-Mamluk was killed along with several other senior rocket officials, the army said." timesofisrael.com/2-killed-by-ro…
A big scoop. US officials suspect the GRU might be behind the suspected directed energy attacks linked to so-called Havana syndrome. But note: "officials do not have a smoking gun linking Russia’s military intelligence unit, the GRU, to the suspected directed-energy incidents"
"The intelligence community has not reached a consensus or made a formal determination. However, officials have told lawmakers that they have intensified their investigation in recent weeks ... and that it is focused on the GRU’s potential involvement" politico.com/amp/news/2021/…
"Israel and China may also have the technology, but neither country operates in all of the locations where the incidents were reported, or has shown the desire to attack Americans in this way, another former national security official said." politico.com/amp/news/2021/…
🧵 I recently spoke to a senior US defence official who set out some interesting figures on Chinese military modernisation. Nothing drastically new here, but sobering to hear it laid out in these terms:
"In the last five years, PLA has fielded about 90 modern major naval ships–cruisers, destroyers, frigates, submarines, amphibious lift, principal auxiliaries, refuelling, supply ships, intelligence ships–so they're averaging nearly 20 new ships a year over the last half decade"
"They [the PLA] have fielded more than 500 new fourth and fifth generation fighters. So more than 100 a year, on average, and a sustained rate at that. That's giving them much more capacity to conduct the major components of a unification campaign against Taiwan'
Merkel’s failure to engage with Biden has been especially jarring. One ambassador..put it to me this way: “We saw Biden give Europe a pitch-perfect message on China at the Munich Security Conference. There should have been a reaction by now." https://www."gmfus.org/blog/2021/05/0…
“We feel like we’ve been making a good faith effort to right the ship but we’re not getting much in return,” one senior [US] official told me. “The narrative is taking hold that Berlin simply doesn’t want to play.” gmfus.org/blog/2021/05/0…
"Talk to German officials and you hear a different story. They accuse the Biden administration of not consulting them early enough on its plans to withdraw U.S. troops from Afghanistan, and they complain about “Made in America” industrial policies" gmfus.org/blog/2021/05/0…
🤔 "Mr. Jaishankar on Wednesday delivered a lecture on the COVID-19 situation in India and blamed “societal complacency” for the outbreak of the second wave. He also claimed that India has neglected the health sector for “75 years”..." thehindu.com/news/national/…
Jaishankar: "I don’t think that it is fair [to blame the gov't] either in terms of diagnosing the problem [or] assessing how the government responded to it...the mood of the country at the beginning of the year...was to get the economy going, get normalcy" theprint.in/india/jaishank…
Jaishankar on whether religious gatherings contributed to India's crisis. “There were crowds and crowds. It can’t be that religious crowds are a problem but protest crowds are fine. At the end of the day, a crowd is a crowd, is a crowd.” theprint.in/india/jaishank…
The @ODNIgov intelligence report has some kind, and cautionary, thoughts on the UK. The good: "The United Kingdom is likely to continue to punch above its weight internationally given its strong military and financial sector and its global focus." dni.gov/files/ODNI/doc…
But: "Managing the economic and political challenges posed by its departure from the EU will be the country’s key challenge; failure could lead to a splintering of the United Kingdom and leave it struggling to maintain its global power." dni.gov/files/ODNI/doc…
"India may struggle to balance its long-term commitment to strategic autonomy from Western powers with the need to embed itself more deeply into multilateral security architectures to counter a rising China." dni.gov/files/ODNI/doc…