In literally the next tweet Silver notes the gap between what epidemiologists are doing and what they consider medically safe, but he can't quite put the pieces together. (Hint: Whether something is medically safe isn't the only influence on behavior in Year Two of a pandemic.)
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1392446275375833089
I consider it pretty much safe to take the subway at this point. If anyone asked my opinion, I'd tell them it was fine to take the subway. I haven't yet taken the subway. There's no contradiction there, just me being a human being, muddling through.
And again, in spite of Nate Silver's framing above, that's not me being "risk averse." It's not a matter of risk. I spent a few hours hanging out with (a small group of) (fully vaccinated) friends in a (not-crowded) bar the other day.
If you asked me which of those two activities—bar or subway—I considered "safer," I'd say the subway. But again, it's not a matter of risk assessment. Re-entry is weird, and taking things slow is a luxury I have. So I'm doing it.
It hit me on a gut level a week or so ago that I'm never quite going to be the person I was a year and a half ago. Maybe if the pandemic had lasted for a month I would have just reverted afterwards. But that's not where I'm at. I've changed. Permanently.
Most of those changes—maybe all of them, ultimately—are positive, or neutral. But yeah, I think they're permanent, some of them. And no, they're not fully under my control. And that's okay, too.
And guess what, Nate? All this stuff is going to take us a while to unpack!
One more thing about all this: The ambiguity of the word "would" in the question Silver is teeing off on. "Would have done if I had to" and "would have done if the opportunity arose" and "would have done at the drop of a hat" are three very different things.
And flipping it over "wouldn't do because I think it's unsafe" and "wouldn't do because the pandemic has influenced what I'm interested in doing right now" and "would never do again because I'm scarred" are three VERY different things, all reasonable readings of the Q.
Just going to tack this—from a spinoff thread—up here, because I think it's useful in the original thread's context as well.
https://twitter.com/studentactivism/status/1392516730807889923
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