When I got divorced, I started a strange hobby: I went to the New York Public Library to read old newspapers.
In this gorgeous ambience I dove into the lost knowledge of a century of financial markets.
In this gorgeous ambience I dove into the lost knowledge of a century of financial markets.
Just kidding. That room belongs to J.P. Morgan’s private library (now a museum - do visit! Amazing and overwhelming old book smells!)
I was here: the NYPL's Science, Industry and Business Library (SIBL). A nondescript building across from the Empire State Building.
I was here: the NYPL's Science, Industry and Business Library (SIBL). A nondescript building across from the Empire State Building.
That’s where I spent many Saturday mornings. I guess I was looking for some lost wisdom, advice that would help me out of my rut.
I started with a simple list of famous investors and just hacked away.
I started with a simple list of famous investors and just hacked away.
Over time, I started canvassing the footnotes of well-researched financial history books (hello @scmallaby, I tried to find nearly every article you referenced in MMTG😂).
I started sharing on Twitter. It was fun. Kind of innocent. Very unpolished.
Allow me to demonstrate:
I started sharing on Twitter. It was fun. Kind of innocent. Very unpolished.
Allow me to demonstrate:
One of @BillAckman's first big trades was a busted pharma net-net called Circa?
Finding Klarman’s Margin of Safety “this book was the catalyst.”
“God, we could do this.”
Finding Klarman’s Margin of Safety “this book was the catalyst.”
“God, we could do this.”
Druckenmiller in 1988: “We all gamble with other people’s money and charge them a fee.”
“The only good economist I have found is the stock market.”
“The only good economist I have found is the stock market.”
https://twitter.com/NeckarValue/status/1085255029735518214
Ed Thorpe in 1974:
"The market is far more interesting than other forms of gambling." (Still kinda gambling though?)
Stressed from maintaining charts on 1,000 situations:
"I wish the anomalies would disappear so that I could relax for a while"
"The market is far more interesting than other forms of gambling." (Still kinda gambling though?)
Stressed from maintaining charts on 1,000 situations:
"I wish the anomalies would disappear so that I could relax for a while"
https://twitter.com/NeckarValue/status/1018502032225898496
I mapped out Soros’s transformational crisis of 1981.
"I underwent a serious change in my personality"
"There was a large element of guilt and shame in my emotional makeup, but I worked through it"
"I revealed my biases, therefore I could dismiss them"
"I underwent a serious change in my personality"
"There was a large element of guilt and shame in my emotional makeup, but I worked through it"
"I revealed my biases, therefore I could dismiss them"
https://twitter.com/NeckarValue/status/1016095377605488646
Henry Singleton, 1976.
“We placed survival first. Some companies don’t, and you can see their wreckage all across the country”
“Why give cash to stockholders when there is no other company that can give them as good a return as we can by reinvesting”
“We placed survival first. Some companies don’t, and you can see their wreckage all across the country”
“Why give cash to stockholders when there is no other company that can give them as good a return as we can by reinvesting”
https://twitter.com/NeckarValue/status/993298216874635264
Richard Rainwater’s “power investment club” in 1992. Building the ultimate deal network.
https://twitter.com/NeckarValue/status/1109458207888556033
Seth Klarman in 1990 on the junk bond fallout:
Non-recourse debt and new valuation tools: "swing for the fences with other people's money."
"Investors and lenders abandoned historical yardsticks of value."
Non-recourse debt and new valuation tools: "swing for the fences with other people's money."
"Investors and lenders abandoned historical yardsticks of value."
https://twitter.com/NeckarValue/status/1104382074159616001
Duck hunting with Sam Walton. Wal-Mart was “not exciting at the time, just another good stock.” But realized they were different, "came through again and again"
“Anybody can start a retail operation. What separates men from boys is totally management”
“Anybody can start a retail operation. What separates men from boys is totally management”
https://twitter.com/NeckarValue/status/1055111319391744000
John Neff, 1972.
"I'm a strict fundamentalist, blind as a bat to growth stocks."
"I'm a strict fundamentalist, blind as a bat to growth stocks."
https://twitter.com/NeckarValue/status/1046830112845500416
Baldwin United, @WallStCynic’s first big win.
https://twitter.com/NeckarValue/status/970848590158495744
I loved how close this work could get me to the actual events. Short of interviewing people for “oral history,” it was the closest to live coverage of the uncertainty, emotion, and bias.
This remained a niche interest. Notebooks filled with ideas. Articles unread on my hard drive (I will admit to being a bit of a hoarder).
I was subject to compliance and nobody liked the idea of me writing about financial topics while employed.
Good thing I got fired, I guess.
I was subject to compliance and nobody liked the idea of me writing about financial topics while employed.
Good thing I got fired, I guess.
As many of you know, last year was bumpy for me. Writing has been therapeutic. Bit of a life saver.
It helped me process: getting fired ...
neckar.substack.com/p/attempting-t…
It helped me process: getting fired ...
neckar.substack.com/p/attempting-t…
Divorce and jealousy …
neckar.substack.com/p/divorce-deni…
neckar.substack.com/p/divorce-deni…
This is an amazing community and has been very good to me.
I was nervous when I wrote those pieces. I was anxious to hit publish. I felt embarrassed. Had no idea what to expect.
The response was amazing. I am grateful to all of you for that. I hope I could lighten up your days.
I was nervous when I wrote those pieces. I was anxious to hit publish. I felt embarrassed. Had no idea what to expect.
The response was amazing. I am grateful to all of you for that. I hope I could lighten up your days.
There were moments when I was proud to be a lone warrior. Independent. Not reliant on anyone. Not anymore.
Finding a community with the abundance mindset is like a cheat code for a better life.🙏
Finding a community with the abundance mindset is like a cheat code for a better life.🙏
This is a long thread to make a simple statement: I’m going pro. I will read more, write more, hopefully think more. I invite you to join me.
@NonGaap said “the highest conviction decision in your life should be your willingness to bet on yourself.” I’m glad I can finally agree.
@NonGaap said “the highest conviction decision in your life should be your willingness to bet on yourself.” I’m glad I can finally agree.
This will continue to be an open and personal exploration of the ‘money game,’ its stories and players, their grand designs and fever dreams.
And I will continue to share my own journey with its string of Constanza-style moments.
And I will continue to share my own journey with its string of Constanza-style moments.
In other words: expect more stories and ideas that you won’t see elsewhere.
I am very excited to dive into this and see what it can become. I hope you are, too.
neckar.substack.com/p/a-big-announ…
I am very excited to dive into this and see what it can become. I hope you are, too.
neckar.substack.com/p/a-big-announ…
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