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Professor Philip Nolan Profile picture
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12 May, 4 tweets, 3 min read
A lot of reasons to be optimistic. While incidence is relatively high, it is stable, due to our collective efforts to minimize transmission. If we remain careful, and keep each other safe, we can see this through the few weeks until vaccination offers us greater protection. 1/4 ImageImage
Incidence has remained stable through April, and test positivity below 3% despite intense testing. The numbers in hospital and ICU are decreasing; importantly, daily admissions remain low. 2/4 ImageImageImageImage
The recent increases in incidence in children and adolescents seem to be transient, and incidence in these age groups is now trending back towards the population average. 3/4 Image
We are seeing a clear effect of vaccination in older age groups in the community: incidence has plummeted (down 80-90%) in those over 75 years, and in coming weeks we’ll see that effect work down through the age groups. We’re nearly there. Stay safe. 4/4 Image

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More from @President_MU

Professor Philip Nolan Profile picture
14 May
Dr. Mina, you have inferred a great deal about my knowledge and motivation from one tweet; fair enough, it may not have been my finest moment in pandemic communications. Nonetheless, a few points of clarification and response. 1/15
First, there is a context. This is not about antigen testing in general, which does have and will continue to have a role in our management of the pandemic. 2/15
This is about the uncontrolled and unsupported sale of antigen tests by a supermarket chain, and their (one hopes tongue-in-cheek) response to advice from @CMOIreland not to use them, as a negative test might give false reassurance that you are free of infection. 3/15
Read 15 tweets
Professor Philip Nolan Profile picture
9 Apr
We have looked carefully at incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection in children in recent weeks for any impact of the phased return to the classroom. The data, and thorough public health investigation, confirm that schools remain a low-risk environment. 1/16
Schools are low risk because of the mitigation and protection measures put in place by teachers, principals, families, general practitioners and public health doctors. 2/16
The data show a moderate and transient increase in cases of SARS-CoV-2 infection reported in children, not directly because of the return to in-person education, but due to increased detection, or case ascertainment, related to an increase in testing. 3/16
Read 16 tweets
Professor Philip Nolan Profile picture
12 Dec 20
Let’s protect the vulnerable. Keep your contacts to a minimum between now and Christmas and then celebrate with a small circle. Meet outdoors if you can. If indoors: limit numbers and duration, use masks and keep your distance, gentle natural ventilation. 1/5 Image
It’s good that numbers in hospital and ICU are falling. Behind each number is a human story of illness and loss. Hospitalisations lag behind cases, and sadly what we are seeing now is the impact on older and vulnerable people infected towards the end of the recent surge. 2/5 ImageImage
A semi-log plot clearly shows the delay between rising cases and rising hospitalisations, and equally the delay between the suppression of infections in the community and the decline in the number of severely ill people in hospital. 3/5 Image
Read 5 tweets
Professor Philip Nolan Profile picture
19 Oct 20
The move to Level 5 restrictions was a difficult decision for Government, and is very hard for people whose lives and livelihoods are most affected, but it was necessary to interrupt uncontrolled exponential growth of the pandemic. 1/5
We can, collectively, suppress transmission of the virus again, if we fully enter into the spirit of these measures, and eliminate, for the next six weeks, close contacts other than our household, ‘bubble’, school or college, or essential work. 2/5
Our modelling shows that to make a success of this, we need get viral transmission down to very low levels. A reproduction number of 0.9 or 0.7 won’t be enough, we need to aim for R = 0.5. 3/5
Read 5 tweets
Professor Philip Nolan Profile picture
16 Oct 20
We face difficult decisions if we are to suppress again the spread of SARS-CoV-2, and different voices should be heard. However, such contributions should be grounded in the facts, and public health expertise and experience. This article is neither. 1/12 irishtimes.com/opinion/jack-l…
A public health specialist would give you a much better critique than I could of the errors and misconceptions in the argument; I’ll confine myself to highlighting some factual inaccuracies. 2/12
The article states that “it is reasonable to make an educated assumption that tens of thousands of cases were circulating undiagnosed throughout the country” in March and April, implying that 500-1000 cases now is less of a problem than it seems. 3/12
Read 12 tweets
Professor Philip Nolan Profile picture
8 Oct 20
The exponential growth in SARS-CoV-2 infection in Ireland should make each and every one of us stop, think, and resolve again to do our part to suppress the virus, now and quickly. 1/7 Image
The call to action is the same as it has been for weeks, but much more urgent now: radically limit our discretionary social contacts, maintain physical distance and safe practices when we do meet, self-isolate and call for help with any symptoms of COVID-19. 2/7 Image
We have seen rising cases, now we are seeing rapid increases in the number of people admitted to hospital and ICU. 3/7 Image
Read 7 tweets

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