At minute 4:46 Bill Gurley describes an approach that is straight up Michael Mauboussin style "Expectations Investing." Take the Airbnb stock price today and reverse engineer what must happen to support that price. One thing you do know for sure is the current price. Invert!
The other Michael Mauboussin style approach Bill Gurley talks about is that multiples: 1) are shortcuts; and 2) are very often not apples to apples. Gurley says in the video that markets may start to be "more discerning" about something like price to sales.abovethecrowd.com/2011/05/24/all…
3/ People can make jokes about ketchup packet supply chains being under stress now, but at 12:22 my friend Josh Wolfe asks a question about far more critical supply chains.
Comedy often is about revealed truth. For example, inside every ketchup pack joke is an important truth.
Bill Gurley: “Being ‘right’ doesn’t lead to superior performance if the consensus forecast is also right.” google.com/amp/s/25iq.com…
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"Gross margin decreased from 42% during the year ended Dec. 31, 2019 to 41% during the year ended Dec. 31, 2020, primarily due to an increase in Revenue Share amounts paid to Customers."
People don't talk enough about the "special purpose" part of a SPAC.
The best explanation of that is in the Steve Martin movie "The Jerk."
Navin explains that he plans to use his special purpose every time he can -- which is just like SPAC sponsors. thetimes.co.uk/article/cyber-…
A screenplay about using BBM92 protocol between two buildings, connected by a 350-m-long fiber, resulting in an average raw (secure) key rate of 135 bits/s (86 bits/s) for a pumping rate of 80 MHz, without resorting to time- or frequency-filtering techniques is a special purpose.
Quantum Key Distribution (QKD): As you know, superposition and entanglement are used in quantum communication/QKD. A generator produces two entangled photons where the quantum state of one photon is perfectly equal to another photon, even over great distances!
"We have a very unusual group of shareholders who look at Berkshire as a lifetime savings vehicle... one they don’t have to think about [and not] look at it again for 10 or 20 years." WB
2/ That Buffett and Munger have different objectives, time horizons and circle of competence doesn't mean that Munger's investing process isn't worth understanding if you do have a technology circle of competence. You are not them or one of the shareholders they think most about.
3/ If you have a technology and early stage venture heavy portfolio want to balance that with something other than cash or bonds you may want to create a barbell portfolio with some smallish percentage managed by BRK as if you were 75 years old (even though you are 35 years old).
1/ The ability of bits (i.e., software) to replace atoms is enabled by chips. An example of this: the system that steers my boat electronically when leaving to returning to the dock via this joystick. The software enables the hardware (bow thruster too) to move the boat sideways.
2/ The chip shortage is so significant manufacturers are stripping out functionality from their products.
"NXP plans to ship at least 20% more auto chips by revenue in the first 1/2 of 2021 even though car production has dropped about 10% since 2019."bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
3/ "Intel CEO Pat Gelsinger predicts the shortage will persist for a “couple of years.” German chipmaker Infineon likewise suspects supply to finally meet demand in 2023.
"I don’t always have a lot of intonational variation in how I speak – which I’m told makes for great comedy. I’m actually making history tonight as the first person with Asperger’s [syndrome] to host SNL. Or at least the first to admit it.” google.com/amp/s/www.wsj.…
"My very mild Asperger’s has helped me creatively. I sometimes hear a voice and think: “That could be a character I could do.”
3/ "In my opinion, my father [Phil Fisher] suffered from what would have been diagnosed as Asperger’s syndrome. Being a classic Asperger’s case, he was unusual. He liked to be alone and think. He was an Asperger’s guy." thinkadvisor.com/2015/06/02/ken…
1/ "The really great painters are the ones that change how other people paint, like Picasso. David Swensen changed how everyone who is serious about investing thinks about investing,” says Charles Ellis, who chaired Yale’s endowment between 1997 and 2008.
2/ "Swensen understood the value of optionality intuitively and was also not afraid to play very aggressively when he thought the odds favoured him,” says Robert Wallace, who Swensen hired as an intern."
3/ "I think I learned as much from David during our conversations over the poker table as I did in the formal meetings,” he says.
For those not at the poker table, Swensen’s 2000 magnum opus, Pioneering Portfolio Management, allowed them to absorb his investment philosophy."