Businesses covered:
~Apcotex
~Blue Star
~Tata Consumer Products
~Ultratech Cement
1/
Apcotex
• Revenues for the quarter were up 61.5% YoY
• Reported its highest-ever revenues, export volumes, EBITDA, PBT & PAT in a quarter in Q4
• Plants running at full capacity for XNB latex for gloves
• Q4FY21 Consol Rev up 26% YoY
• Order book at Rs 2952 Cr
• RAC sales grew 33% YoY & market share @ 13.25%
• Launched new range of pharma cold rooms, medical freezers, ice-lined refrigerators, & vaccine transporters
In the book, “Thinking Fast & Slow”, Kahneman talks about Gary Klein who invented the premortem technique
This technique asks us to use “prospective hindsight”
Go in the future & analyze the past.
Like thinking today, “2-3 yrs out, how can this business go bust?”
Contra Bets are High-Risk High Reward bets.
If you win you win big, If you lose, you lose big too.
A thin line separates conviction and overconfidence in investing.
It is worth applying the Premortem technique here
In our analysis of the business potential of Mahindra Holidays, we have tried to apply the Premortem Technique to look at three ways in which MHRIL can go bust.
It will help us in the future to re-evaluate and measure its progress and try to get the warning signals early.
“When the whole world is running towards a cliff, he who is running in the opposite direction appears to have lost his mind.” -C. S. Lewis
The Lost Decade for Resource Equities
“The cure for low prices is low prices”
2/
“Capex for public natural resource companies, in spite of the most accommodative broader capital markets in history, have fallen >60% since peaking in 2012 to levels not seen since the early 2000s.”