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Robert Colvile Profile picture
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13 May, 4 tweets, 2 min read
V rough rule of thumb calculations. UK GDP is £2 trillion. 2.1% growth in March £42bn. Vaccine programme cost £12bn. Obviously you can't credit it for the full rebound, but it's starting to look like the best investment UK govt ever made.
As ever @CPSThinkTank ahead of the curve on this, viz this by @JethroFElsden conservativehome.com/platform/2021/…
More on this from Ambrose E-P in the Telegraph today telegraph.co.uk/business/2021/…
And there's good news about the superdeduction - another policy proposed and championed by @CPSThinkTank

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More from @rcolvile

Robert Colvile Profile picture
13 May
This is a strong column from @iainmartin1 but the line about 'an entirely unnecessary stamp-duty holiday' is classic wisdom-of-hindsight stuff, and misses the point/success of the policy thetimes.co.uk/article/this-p…
As our paper 'Help to Build' argued, the housebuilding sector is massively and dangerously cyclical - when recession hits, builders down tools. And due to the structure of the industry, housebuilding lags significantly behind the wider economy in the recovery.
This is a big reason why we consistently fail to hit housebuilding targets - because the sector is trapped in a cycle of boom and bust cps.org.uk/research/help-…
Read 12 tweets
Robert Colvile Profile picture
9 May
This analysis piece summarising the results from the BBC is just gob-smacking. Here, in order, are their four big takeaways bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politi…
1) Time for Scottish independence
2) Incumbents did well
3) Labour still strong in cities
4) Aren’t the Greens great too?
The kindest possible interpretation is that whoever wrote this felt the ‘Tories do well, Labour collapse in heartlands’ narrative had got a bit stale. But someone should surely have thought ‘hang on a minute’...
Read 5 tweets
Robert Colvile Profile picture
4 May
Given what's happening on Super Thursday, it is worth revisiting this @CPSThinkTank report by @mattwarman, and its extraordinary @DeltapollUK polling findings (1/?) cps.org.uk/files/reports/…
The most obvious point is that no one likes or trusts government - with the disillusionment growing as you go from local to national
But the most interesting point in light of the elections is not the distrust but the ignorance. We asked people which layers of government they thought they were subject to, then matched that against their postcodes. The proportion who answered completely correctly was... 0%
Read 7 tweets
Robert Colvile Profile picture
29 Apr
A quick follow-up to this tweet on household wealth. Much of the increase is house prices, but some is still savings - the savings ratio is at its highest since 1962 (1/?)
A lot of people are expecting/hoping for that cash to come sluicing back into the economy, juicing the recovery. But I'm afraid @CPSThinkTank can offer a warning from history...
As @JethroFElsden showed in his paper 'History Repeating?', on the postwar recovery, the boom in the US wasn't fuelled by people winding down the savings they'd amassed in wartime (because there was nothing to buy/they were in the military)
Read 7 tweets
Robert Colvile Profile picture
25 Apr
I've written my column, inevitably, on Gotterdommerung - and how utterly misguided it was for the PM to pick this particular fight thetimes.co.uk/article/robert…
As I point out, one of the best reasons to worry that Dom would go nuclear is that he has *literally done this before*. After eight months as IDS's director of strategy, he wrote this for the Telegraph
And any idea that he would be loyal enough to the Tory party to stay his hand is probably dispelled by the par that follows (telegraph.co.uk/comment/person…)
Read 6 tweets
Robert Colvile Profile picture
23 Apr
For strategic, diplomatic, economic and above all humanitarian reasons, the UK and other Western countries should be sending vaccines to India by the bucketload. The US alone has huge stockpiles of AZ & J&J it hasn’t authorised.
And yes India has very significant vaccine supply capacity of its own. But it is a vast country and every little helps.
And crucially the US needs to lift its ban on the export of the components India needs to actually make them.
Read 4 tweets

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