Of late, there has been a lot of chatter that "value" is making a comeback after a decade of underperformance. While this is broadly true, there is a large amount of nuance that such a statement glosses over.
In most circumstances, it doesn't matter. But if you are a quant investor, or an investor in a quant fund, understanding these nuances matters a lot. After all, not all large cap funds are the same. Why should all value strategies be the same?
The textbook definition of value in the quant sense is the p/b ratio. Fama and French, the duo that proposed this idea, sorted the investment universe based on price to book. Roughly speaking, 1/3rd of the stocks with the lowest p/b ratios were considered value stocks.
A value portfolio was then constructed as an equal weighted long portfolio with these cheapest stocks, combined with a short portfolio of the most expensive stocks. And the performance of this portfolio over time was then taken to be the performance of the value factor.
This, however, is almost never how real value portfolios are constructed. For one thing, a lot of real portfolios are long-only in nature. Which means that they are not market neutral, and to a large extent, their performance is determined by the returns in the broad market.
Second, the p/b ratio is rarely the only variable that is considered when determining if something is a value stock. Other commonly used variables include p/e, p/s, ev/ebitda, dividend yield, etc. There are very good reasons to use multiple variables to determine value.
Clearly, the choice of variables that a fund manager uses can cause the resulting portfolios to have very different outcomes. Not only is the choice of variables important, but also how they are all combined to come up with a final score.
While there are many more nuances to talk about, the important consequence is that real world portfolios can have very different outcomes compared to the performance of the textbook versions of the relevant factors.
For example, @CliffordAsness of AQR says that despite the broader value underperformance starting from 2010, their own value portfolios did not really suffer until as late of 2017. This was a result of how robust their definition of value was and their portfolio construction.
The key takeaway is this. If and when you choose to invest in a quant strategy, look beyond the label. There is a lot going on beneath the surface
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
Investors talk a lot about their investment process. Some of them are very good. But few ever break down their investment process into what I think are five major steps. As an investor, it is worth articulating what your process is for each of those five steps.
An investment starts with "idea generation". Where do you get your ideas from? Screens...magazine articles...cloning? There are many possible sources and you don't have to choose just one. Having a well-defined list helps focus and also tracking where your best ideas come from.
The next step is "analysis". It can range from checking technical indicators to a feet-on-the-ground scuttlebutt process. This depends on what kind of investor you are. But define exactly what you do, and what you look at. It helps avoid biases and mistakes due to missed steps.
Finally finished reading Kochland by @CLeonardNews. Took me 2 weeks to get through it but totally unputdownable. If I'd realised it was a 700 page tome before I picked it up, I might have shied away. Thank God I didn't.
1/n
For one thing, it's brilliantly written. There's an excellent balance between giving us details about the various characters' history and sticking to the main points. This is in contrast to Ron Chernow - a brilliant writer in his own right. 2/n
More importantly though, it has incredible detail about so many things that have happened both in in American politics as well as American business. From a far clearer explanation of what happened during the California electricity... 3/n
After having read so much about how Amazon does not really lose money but constantly grows without reporting too much of a profit, I decided to finally take a dive into its financials over the last 15 years. In only about 20 minutes, my mind is already blown. 1/n #amazon
I started at 2003. Their financial statements start with cash flows. I'm not sure if that's the US GAAP convention but if it isn't, right out of the gate it says something about management's priorities. 2/n
In 2003, Amazon reported a net income of $35m. But operating cash flows of an incredible $392m. Two important bits stand out for me in there. Stock based comp. of $87.7m and an increase in accounts payables of $167m. That's ~$254m of cash you get to expense. 3/n