A lot of people may be wondering, with 8 vaccinated breakthrough cases on the Yankees - is this evidence the vaccines aren't as effective as we thought?
The short answer is no. A brief thread:
The short answer is no. A brief thread:
https://twitter.com/megtirrell/status/1392945389846863874
First and most importantly, the Yankees are data from about 50 people.
We have data from tens of thousands in trials and millions in the real world that the vaccines work to prevent severe disease, infection, and transmission. Don't lose sight of that!
We have data from tens of thousands in trials and millions in the real world that the vaccines work to prevent severe disease, infection, and transmission. Don't lose sight of that!
Second, we know there's a lot of variability in how much different people spread the virus, and that the vaccines aren't 100% effective.
The Yankees had an unlucky high-load index case, creating a perfect storm. Because...
The Yankees had an unlucky high-load index case, creating a perfect storm. Because...
A baseball team, like many workplaces, spends a lot of time indoors together, including in cramped and poorly ventilated spaces. If transmission is going to happen, there's a lot of chances for it to here. It may be nothing short of a vaccine miracle there were *only* 8 cases!
Which brings me to my last point: How many Yankees *would* have gotten infected *without* the vaccine?
Difficult to estimate know without a thorough epidemiologic investigation. But say it's 24 (a bit over half the travel party, plausible based on other sports outbreaks)...
Difficult to estimate know without a thorough epidemiologic investigation. But say it's 24 (a bit over half the travel party, plausible based on other sports outbreaks)...
That would translate to 8 cases instead of 24, or a vaccine that reduces infections/transmission by 67%. That's within the realm of prior estimates - in other words, what we expected.
Finally, it's also important to remember only 1 Yankee is symptomatic! The vaccines are good at preventing infection and transmission, but they are f'ing RAD at preventing severe disease. They're like a strong wind in from the outfield - HRs become doubles, doubles become outs.
This should say MAY HAVE HAD. I was typing quickly. My bad. We absolutely do not know this!!
Another excellent point. The Yankees are an almost unique population in that we're seeing 100% of the breakthrough cases.
https://twitter.com/JENinATX/status/1392999832063782913?s=19
One other thing on NYY outbreak: the only symptomatic case so far is the first one.
Symptoms correlate with viral load.
That + timing of cases consistent with one unlucky breakthrough case spreading it to a bunch of others, rather than lots of vaxxed-to-vaxxed spread.
Symptoms correlate with viral load.
That + timing of cases consistent with one unlucky breakthrough case spreading it to a bunch of others, rather than lots of vaxxed-to-vaxxed spread.
So in other words it might be that we had 8 breakthrough cases, but only ONE symptomatic case spreading the virus to others (rather than a bunch of vaxxed personnel spreading it around). *If* that's right, that's really really good news!
A->B, C, D >>> A-> B -> C -> D
A->B, C, D >>> A-> B -> C -> D
Relevant here. Still may not have happened even with the Yankees outbreak!
https://twitter.com/ashishkjha/status/1392981880358715392?s=19
This thread is doing numbers. All I really want to say is please get vaccinated.
And if you have any Qs or concerns about getting vaxed & an open critical mind, my DMs are open and my email is zbinney at emory dot edu. Reach out, I'll listen and do my best to help address them!
And if you have any Qs or concerns about getting vaxed & an open critical mind, my DMs are open and my email is zbinney at emory dot edu. Reach out, I'll listen and do my best to help address them!
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