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Phil Kerpen Profile picture
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14 May, 5 tweets, 1 min read
Every age from 1 to 17 had an observed population fatality ratio of less than 1 in 100,000.
If we assume (based on latest UK estimate) that full mRNA vaccination lowers mortality 97%, unvaccinated children have mortality risk similar to vaccinated 30 year olds -- and far, far less than vaccinated older adults. 100 times lower than vaccinated 75+.
Should probably roll this back to an end date before the vaccine was available, but that would only make the point more strongly.
My kids have an even lower unvaccinated risk than my vaccinated risk, but Fauci wants me to mask them. I don't get it.
And this uses CDC numbers that substantially overstate pediatric risk.

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More from @kerpen

Phil Kerpen Profile picture
7 May
Friday Fluday Thread: Influenza-Like Illness Data for MMWR Week 17, ending May 1, 2021
United States Influenza testing, MMWR week 17.

CDC flu view. cdc.gov/flu/weekly/ind…

2016 to 2019 4-year average: 1,243 cases; 8.50% positive
2020: 48; 0.41%
2021: 15; 0.05%

docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d… Image
United States Influenza testing, season to date (31 weeks, MMWR 40 to 17)

Five-year average: 206,764 cases; 18.45% positive

This year: 2,059; 0.14% Image
Read 34 tweets
Phil Kerpen Profile picture
4 May
The original (much worse than reality) Ferg model that shut down the world estimated R0 at 2.4.

Classic SIR formula of HIT = 1 - (1/R0) at 2.4 yield HIT of 58.3%.
Israel first dose as of today (58.15%) is still short of that and positivity rate went under 1% on April 4. If we look two weeks earlier than that on March 21 Israel was at 55.72% first dose and 49.16% fully vaxed. And decline was steep earlier.

datadashboard.health.gov.il/COVID-19/gener…
It is likely that very soon, perhaps today, Massachusetts and Vermont will be the first states to have a higher percent of total pop first dosed than Israel. And we likely have much more natural immunity than Israel from larger past waves. ~125 million Americans.
Read 4 tweets
Phil Kerpen Profile picture
3 May
HHS % positive by NOAA climate region
West region is excluded from last because again it only has two states and more recent Nevada than California, causing an artificial jump when combined.
DC/MD/VA
Read 5 tweets
Phil Kerpen Profile picture
2 May
Schools update from @BurbioCalendar:

% US K-12 students attending "virtual-only" schools = 3.3% (from 5.6 % last week)
% US K-12 students attending "traditional" in-person/every day schools = 67.1% (from 65.3%)
% US K-12 students attending "hybrid" schools = 29.6% (from 29.1%)
Hawaii, California, and Maryland are the only states still under 60% in-person.
cai.burbio.com/school-opening… Image
Burbio percent of students still virtual or hybrid-only by state.

(Color coding added by me. Red=Republican governor.) Image
Read 4 tweets
Phil Kerpen Profile picture
2 May
Biden's CDC not only distorted and overruled their own science (including Dr. Hoeg's Wisconsin study), but actually allowed teachers unions to write key language in the CDC schools guidance contrary to the agency's own science. This is pure corruption.
Also an eerie echo of what the unions did in July 2020, when they got the American Academy of Pediatrics to reverse their science-based recommendations that all schools open in a joint political statement.
It's ugly but I get why the union does this stuff. Why don't CDC and AAP care about kids though?
Read 4 tweets
Phil Kerpen Profile picture
2 May
That DC mask order exempting full vaxed lasted only one day.
coronavirus.dc.gov/sites/default/…
Wonder if it reflected the expected Biden admin action post 100 day mask challenge before the White House called a different play?
Even crazier, @MayorBowser made her outdoor mask mandate for unvaccinated *much worse than ever before*. Fleeting time language that was there from the original outdoor mask order to yesterday is gone.

What's the justification for THAT?

July 22, 2020
April 30, 2021
May 1, 2021
Read 4 tweets

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