It’s my take that we’ve been in a secular bull market since May 2013, when the S&P 500 finally hit a new all-time high after a decade of sideways action, which included two major 50%-plus drawdowns. So what lies ahead? (THREAD/1)
Here’s the super long-term trend for the inflation-adjusted S&P 500 total return index since 1871. Historically, the market tends to swing around this central trend line like a pendulum. The pendulum is always in motion, like the tide. /2 
At the 2009 secular low, the SPX was 47% below the trend line. It is currently 42% above. At past secular bull market peaks (1968 and 2000), the index was about 100% above trend. Therefore... /3
By that measure, the market could still double from here. That would put the SPX at 8000 when this is all said and done. When? The past two super cycles lasted 19 years (1949-68) and 18 years (1982-2000). So, perhaps 2026 or 2027. /4
Here is a chart of the cumulative real return. Again, to me, it suggests a potential 2x move from current levels. /END
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