Thread by @FLAHAULT

1/8 - Switzerland - May 15 to May 21 -
#COVID19 is green in Glarus and Grisons; orange in 8 cantons incl. Geneva, Basel, Zürich; plateauing (red, R>0.9) in 12 other cantons.

Data: zh.ch/de/politik-sta…
Dashboard: renkulab.shinyapps.io/COVID-19-Epide…
Powered by @ISG_UNIGE & @SDSCdatascience

2/8 - Valais is landing towards its #COVID19 safety zone (R-eff=0.83), from medium levels of activity, with no expected mortality, for 7 more days.

3/8 - Geneva is landing towards its #COVID19 safety zone (R-eff=0.83), from medium levels of activity, with no expected mortality, for 7 more days.

4/8 - Vaud (Lausanne) is slowly landing towards its #COVID19 safety zone (R-eff=0.91), from medium levels of activity, with no expected mortality, for 7 more days.

5/8 - Zürich is landing towards its #COVID19 safety zone (R-eff=0.76,close to reaching it, with no expected mortality, for 7 more days.

6/8 - Basel Stadt is landing towards its #COVID19 safety zone (R-eff=0.81), from medium levels of activity, with potential for increase in mortality, for 7 more days.

7/8 - Bern is slowly landing towards its #COVID19 safety zone (R-eff=0.94), from medium level, with low levels of mortality, for 7 more days.

8/8 - Ticino is landing towards its #COVID19 safety zone (R-eff=0.86), close to reaching it, with no expected mortality, for 7 more days.

9/8 -
Read forecasting for other countries by following
@KristenN_06
and @elisa_manetti

A few definitions:
Safety zone: nb of forecast cases/day < 4.29/100K pop
4.3 < Medium level of epidemic activity < 20 cases/day
20 < High level < 100
Very high level > 100

10/8 -
... Definitions (cont'd):
Very low mortality: nb of forecast deaths/d < 0.05/100K pop
0.05 < Low mortality < 0.10
0.10 < Medium mortality < 0.20
0.20 < High mortality < 0.50
Very high mortality > 0.50
Alarming mortality > 1.0
Very alarming mortality > 3.0