Thread by @drStuartGilmour

@aspi_icpc @Nrg8000 @jleibold
I reanalyzed the data from your “family de-planning” report. Contra your findings, “coercive birth control policies” in Uyghur-majority areas had less effect than in Uyghur-minority areas. How do you explain this?

@aspi_icpc @Nrg8000 @jleibold In fact we can build a better model that shows “coercive birth-control policies” were less effective in Uyghur areas. It explains more of the variation than the figures in your report. Why did you not present this model?

@aspi_icpc @Nrg8000 @jleibold In this model, we see birth rates drop more when the baseline is higher. In Uyghur-minority areas, every 1% increase in baseline birth rate gives a 4.4%(point) drop in birth rates. In the southern prefectures, this drop is only 1.0%(points). Why?

@aspi_icpc @Nrg8000 @jleibold This figure shows different birth rate declines between prefectures. Higher baseline birth rates have larger drops – but this effect is smaller in the southern prefectures. How does this support your claim about coercive birth-control policies?

@aspi_icpc @Nrg8000 @jleibold However these analyses are all examples, because your data analysis method is completely wrong. So I have several questions about your analysis. First: why did you choose 2011 – 2015 as a baseline?

@aspi_icpc @Nrg8000 @jleibold Second: Did you investigate the variation between years in the data? Many counties saw a 100% increase in birth rate between 2013 and 2014. Then it dropped by 50% in 2018. This is just random variation, isn’t it?

@aspi_icpc @Nrg8000 @jleibold Third: Why did you use birth rates instead of total fertility rate (TFR)? Birth rates are vulnerable to changes in elderly, male and child populations and can be affected by migration flows, while TFR is not.

@aspi_icpc @Nrg8000 @jleibold I have more questions, but I will begin with these. I hope you will answer them.

@ASPI_ICPC @Nrg8000 @jleibold My next question to ASPI regarding the "family de-planning" report. County websites provide different values to your spreadsheet. For example your spreadsheet gives the birthrate for 2018 for Kashgar city as 22.7, but the Kashgar city website says 7.63. Which is correct?

@Nrg8000 @aspi_icpc @jleibold Examining the "family de-planning" report data more carefully, I looked at Kashgar prefecture website reports for 2011 - 2018. This figure shows the discrepancy between the ASPI report's data and the Kashgar website. Very strange.

@nrg800 @aspi_icpc @jleibold It's very strange that the numbers are so different. I was told the numbers are from the Xinjiang Statistical Yearbook, but I don't believe they should jump around that much when the prefectural government data is so stable. Why the discrepancy?

@nrg800 @aspi_icpc @jleibold Furthermore, Kashgar is a prefecture of 4.5 million people, and birth rates at this level should be more stable than the ASPI data suggests. Why do they increase and decrease by up to 200%/67% from year to year, while pref govt data doesn't?

@nrg800 @aspi_icpc @jleibold I think the yearbooks the authors took the data from do not use a consistent calculation method across years, and the authors have misread the data. If not, I hope they will clarify who prepared this data, how, and why these discrepancies happen.

@nrg800 @aspi_icpc @jleibold This discrepancy isn't just for Kashgar: I found it for Akchi and Onsu as well, and I suspect it is common across this dataset. Is this analysis based on mistaken data entry across the whole file?

Here is an example website for those who want to confirm my calculations. Use Find 出生率 to find the data quickly: xjks.gov.cn/2018/10/10/gkn…