Oxford’s Emeritus Professor of Medicine Sir John Bell tells T&G nobody should go on a foreign holiday this summer: “I don't think anybody's going on a holiday, except in the UK. There are very broad swathes of Europe that are largely unvaccinated...
“...so they’re pretty vulnerable to new variants, be it Indian or otherwise sweeping across the continent. Having people flying around and coming back with whatever local variant they run into, that is not a good idea. Cornwall or Bournemouth is not so bad".
“I don't want to be a party pooper but the most important thing is not to prolong this any longer than we absolutely have to, so going about this cautiously could be quite helpful to everybody.”
Sir John Bell also reveals that a landmark Oxford study has found that current coronavirus vaccines work well against the Indian variant: "It looks like the Indian variant will be susceptible to the vaccine in the way that others are. The data looks rather promising".
"If you do the lab experiment, it looks okay. It's not perfect but it’s not catastrophically bad. There's a slight reduction in the ability to neutralise the virus, but it's not very great and certainly not as great as you see with the South African variant".
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The spectacularly big row over whether to allow Australian agriculture zero tariffs in a trade deal - as per @pmdfoster and @GeorgeWParker's top scoop today - is now engulfing at least half the Cabinet. I learn however that George Eustice has a plan to end the stand off (1)
Eustice, who wants to protect UK farmers from being under cut, will tell Liz Truss he will accept zero tariffs but NOT zero quotas. Instead, flashpoint Australian imports, such as beef and lamb, must have annual caps, or TRQs (tariff rate quotas) as they're known (2)
The Australians must then be told its TRQs on beef and lamb or no deal, and then challenged to bring down the whole thing over that one element. “They’ve defended their interests well. We just need to do the same for ours”, one close to the talks tells me (3)
Matt Hancock reveals there are now 2,323 cases of the Indian variant of covid across the UK. Almost doubled in four days, since the 1,300 on Thursday. 483 of those cases in Bolton and Blackburn alone.
Hancock rams it home to the vaccine hesitant: “Look at what has happened in Bolton: those who chose not to have the jab have ended up in hospital, some of them in intensive care. Vaccines save lives, Mr Speaker".
People aged 37 will be invited forward for a jab from tomorrow, Hancock reveals. The 35s will follow later in the week.
The Treasury Committee has just released dozens of texts that David Cameron bombarded officials, ministers and SPADS with over 3 months of last year to try to save Greensill. He even lobbied his old nemesis Michael Gove. Some are toe curling, like this first one to Tom Scholar:
Or this one, promising "an elbow bump or foot tap" along with the Chancellor.
Cameron also lobbied Treasury ministers Jesse Norman and John Glen with texts, plus No10 SPAD Sheridan Westlake.
Queen's Speech Summary: 25 bills, including two draft ones. 5 major themes: 1. Levelling Up + building back better from Covid. Lots of proposals but only three named bills for this - Skills and Post-16 Education Bill, Planning Bill and the Health and Care Bill.
2. Brexit: Three bills to enact post EU national regimes on areas like subsidies and to set up 8 freeports - the Subsidy Control Bill, Procurement Bill and National Insurance Contributions Bill.
3. Security: two big bits of legislation to tackle the increasing threat from Chinese and Russian espionage, online and in person - the Counter-State Threats Bill and Telecommunications (Security) Bill.
The latest from inside Government on the new vaccine delay: the problem is with AstraZeneca and its international manufacturing and supply chain, rather than it's UK factories. I'm told its the same issues that are affecting the EU’s supply and roll out (1).
AZ is not alone. Two others also having manufacturing problems, Johnson & Johnson + Moderna. Only Pfizer is delivering on schedule. But AZ are still yet to hit their '2 million doses a week by mid February' promise, made in January. “They’re late’, says a senior Govt figure (2)
The other problem is the timing. There is a 1st dose / 2nd dose bottle neck from March 29 onwards, which is 11 weeks on from week beginning Jan 11, which saw the first major roll out of 1st doses. The 300k a day vaccinated then MUST all have their 2nd doses, so take priority (3)
Dom Cummings is back, testifying before the Science Committee to put a marker down on his science agency project ARIA. First barrage for No10, says he's "not confident about how it will work out”, as too many restrictions already being imposed on it.
Cummings also fires a warning shot for Rishi Sunak, by revealing ARIA is already “pencilled in to get generous spending increases year on year in the Spending Review”, expected in the Autumn. ie, cut that if you dare.
A big rocket for Matt Hancock now. Cummings says "the Department of Health had a total disaster in how it buys, how it procures" during its immediate response to covid last year. Also says DHSC was stripped of the vaccine procurement task for that reason.