And I work it out like this. List all the ways it can end.
A border in the Irish Sea
Irish partition
Britain staying in Europe

Every one of those forces Johnson to resign. No, we haven't quite finished . . .
If Johnson is going to keep his job he has to find another option to those three.
And the only answer I can find is if we don't have a border but we don't follow European rules either.
And that's where Johnson has fallen through a gap in the universe. he keeps looking for an answer where Northern Ireland stays in the United Kingdom and stays in the European Union at the same time
Northern Ireland has been like that until now. In both the United Kingdom and the European Union at the same time.
But it cannot maintain that state if Britain leaves Europe.
If Britain leaves Europe Northern Ireland has to be in one or the other. And Johnson has to choose which, and both of them cost him his job
If Johnson tries to partition Ireland he resigns. But if he keeps us in Europe he also resigns.
Which is why I keep saying he's going to resign. Just like Theresa May before.
I can predict resignations even beyond Johnson. I predict this. From now on every prime minister that tries to conclude Brexit will resign without getting it done.
This will continue until we find one that's willing to abandon it.
At the same time as no government can get Brexit done, Scotland will keep pursuing independence.
By the end of this the English are going to have no country and no economy left. Unless they do as I say.

Sack Johnson, expel the Brexiteers, and abandon Brexit.

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More from @Staedtler

18 May
The trade part of twitter and the political part of twitter are not quite wired up right.
The trade part of twitter is all about the practical business of crossing borders.
While the political part of twitter is all about borders in people's head.
If you see Brexit as nothing more than trade rules, it will always mystify you why it doesn't work.
But once you understand it as ideology and nationalism, you know it will never work because it can never satisfy the emotions driving it.
Read 18 tweets
18 May
If Johnson accepts the agreement he has just repudiated his cabinet will resign and he'll get a vote of no confidence and a leadership challenge.
If Johnson tries to revert to the Theresa May customs area the ground will simply swallow him up out of embarrassment.
If Johnson tries to impose a border in Ireland he will invite the fury of two continents, both more powerful than him, and he will be forced to resign.
Read 6 tweets
17 May
It's easy to forget where you are with Brexit, but fear not, twitter is at hand.
A trade and co-operation agreement with Europe came into force on May 1st. This had been provisional since January. It provides tariff and quota-free trade.

A N D
The Northern Ireland protocol rules come into force over the course of 2021. Under this:
Northern Ireland remains in the EU customs code and parts of single market.
Checks take place at entry points to NI.
The UK has announced its intention to ignore the terms of the Withdrawal Agreement and treat Northern Ireland as an open border with the rest of Britain.
On March 15th the EU started infringement action.
The UK has until mid May to submit its observations in response.
Read 11 tweets
16 May
Johnson is getting the boot this summer. It's so obvious.
He can't get Brexit done because he can't split the union and he can't partition Ireland.
And no one else can do it either.
Johnson is going to be sacked, the Tories are going to admit that Brexit will destroy the country, then labour will have to admit the same.
Then Starmer will have to resign as well.
The problem is that no one can do Brexit, but until the country changes its mind every government is condemned to keep trying.
The answer is for the country to change its mind.
Read 8 tweets
9 May
I'll tell you something wrong with the Labour party is they've never had a woman leader. Why haven't they? Everyone else has
If you look around there are female prime ministers and presidents everywhere. America hasn't, but at least the Democrats have had a female presidential candidate.
Even the Tories have had two female prime ministers. It's not a criticism of Keir Starmer. It's more about the Labour party.
They chose Corbyn - the elderly male crank - when they had a chance of choosing Yvette Cooper
Read 6 tweets
9 May
For once it was a Marr show worth watching, and I learnt many things.
That Michael Gove is going to challenge for the Tory leadership, very likely some time this autumn once the covid vaccine is fully pegged
We also saw Nicola Sturgeon doing the right thing and keep calling it a landslide.
Everyone in Scotland understands the voting system, and they know perfectly well the SNP won an overwhelming landslide. Most people in England probably don't
Gove seems to recognise the problem there. You can't keep telling English people that the SNP didn't win a majority, when the voters in Scotland know they did.
It's not the English you have to persuade.
Read 8 tweets

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