Thread by @Staedtler

It's easy to forget where you are with Brexit, but fear not, twitter is at hand.
A trade and co-operation agreement with Europe came into force on May 1st. This had been provisional since January. It provides tariff and quota-free trade.

A N D

The Northern Ireland protocol rules come into force over the course of 2021. Under this:
Northern Ireland remains in the EU customs code and parts of single market.
Checks take place at entry points to NI.

The UK has announced its intention to ignore the terms of the Withdrawal Agreement and treat Northern Ireland as an open border with the rest of Britain.
On March 15th the EU started infringement action.
The UK has until mid May to submit its observations in response.

The UK and EU have still not agreed a timetable for Britain to implement the Northern Ireland protocol.
And that's where we are now. Deadlocked on the Irish border as we have been for the last four years and will remain forever.

Now you want to know what happens next, and this is the bit no one is willing to tell you except me.
Johnson is going to resign and the Tories are going to abandon Brexit.
Yes, yes, Brexit has already happened. They will abandon it nevertheless

Johnson has three choices which all end in his resignation.

Revert to May's agreement. This would be so massive humiliation Johnson would resign first.

Johnson's agreement. He's repudiated it. If he adopted it again it would split the union and his party would mutiny.

The third option is even worse. Johnson could try and put a border in Ireland.
This would provoke the fury of everyone: Lords, opposition, America, Ireland and Europe, and split his cabinet and his party. his government would fall and he would resign.

As each of those three possibilities results in Johnson's resignation, and as one of them has to be how it ends, we can now predict Boris Johnson's resignation.
As Theresa May before him he has driven himself down a dead end where the only thing he can do is resign.

You want to know when Johnson will resign. I have a feeling it's going to be soon. A lot sooner than people imagine.
I think Boris Johnson will resign before the end of June.

I think Johnson will resign, and i think the Tories are so sick of Brexit they will replace him with a remainer and abandon Brexit.
Brexit will then end as it always must - when the Tories no longer want it.

But there's still more to come. The final act of Brexit is going to be a Scottish independence referendum.
If Scotland leaves the union i think that will be a just punishment for the Conservative Party for their behaviour these last few years.