1/4
This story doesn't change much, does it? Real estate prices in China's 70 largest cities rose month on month by 0.48% in April, after rising 0.41% in March. This is an annualized 5.9% for April and 5.5% for the past two months.

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
2/4
With deposits at 0.35%, and government bonds yielding between 2.6-3.2% (1-year to 10-year), even low rental yields of roughly 2% make buying an apartment seem a good investment. Beijing has been growling about surging real estate prices for years, and more than...
3/4
ever recently, even threatening a real estate tax, but until regulators implement sharper-toothed measures — which of course if credible will almost certainly cause prices to fall — there is little they can do to prevent ever more speculation in Chinese real estate.
4/4
The bad census data last Tuesday — and the widespread belief that high apartment prices are one of the main reasons young couples won't have children — may finally be enough to force Beijing's hand, but there is no good or easy way to keep prices from rising sharply.

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More from @michaelxpettis

14 May
1/10
This is the argument that Yu Yongding and a few others have been making, but I don't think that this is what most economic policymakers and policy advisors believe. In a recent debate Yu described his view as a minority view.
2/10
As for “Consumption is never a source of growth", I think the claim can be made that it isn't a direct source of growth, and certainly not in the way Beijing has always thought about growth, but it is consumption (foreign or domestic) that justifies business...
3/10
investment, even if one can pretend that more consumption isn't needed to justify property and infrastructure investment, and in China it is the latter two that is largely unproductive and causes the surge in debt.
Read 12 tweets
13 May
1/5
A moderate increase in China's CPI inflation would in some ways be a good sign because it would suggest that consumption was rising faster than production, which might in turn imply a rebalancing of income towards middle-class households and workers.

scmp.com/economy/china-…
2/5
But it would leave the PBoC with a difficult policy choice. If the PBoC were to prevent interest rates from rising in line with the increase in inflation, it would in effect be engineering an income transfer from ordinary households (by reducing the value of their...
3/5
savings) to banks or to borrowers, i.e. businesses and government entities. This would not only reverse the rebalancing process, but by lowering the real cost of borrowing it would encourage more rising debt, asset-price bubbles, and the further misallocation of investment.
Read 5 tweets
12 May
1/4
“If the goal was to reduce imports from China then it succeeded,” said Craig Allen, president of the U.S.-China Business Council, which represents U.S. companies do business in China. “But if the goal was...
wsj.com/articles/u-s-t…
2/4
to increase manufacturing employment in the United States I don’t see any evidence that that’s happened. If the goal was to increase imports from other countries in Asia or increase manufacturing employment in Vietnam, it’s succeeded.”

carnegieendowment.org/chinafinancial…
3/4
This was always inevitable. In a globalized world in which transportation costs are low and the cost of capital transfers nearly zero, US tariffs on specific Chinese goods can at best shift trade imbalances around. Their impact on the overall US trade deficit or the...
Read 4 tweets
12 May
1/4
According to this WSJ article: "Large card issuers...say that overall card balances—and thus the firms’ interest income—are falling. To make up for it, issuers are spending more on marketing and loosening their underwriting standards."

wsj.com/articles/credi…
2/4
This reinforces one of the points that@M_C_Klein and I make in our book. Contrary to popular opinion — even among economists who really should know better — a country's savings rate isn't determined by that country's moral values, or its cultural...

yalebooks.yale.edu/book/978030024…
3/4
attitudes towards thrift, but depends rather on structural reasons, among the most important of which are bank lending standards. Because in every country there is a wide range among households of attitudes towards risk and thrift, the amount of consumer credit depends...
Read 4 tweets
12 May
1/5
Jiangsu province, the largest local government bond issuer, has issued rules restricting new debt issuance by local government financing vehicles: "For highly leveraged LGFVs with poor performance, debt increases must be approved by ...

caixinglobal.com/2021-05-12/jia…
2/5
investors, according to guidance issued earlier this month by the provincial government. LGFVs with good financial results and low debt ratios can still increase operational debt by a certain amount."
3/5
What does this mean? Only one or some combination of three things: the locus of future borrowing will shift from insolvent LGFVs to healthy ones, until they too are unable to meet the new criteria; local governments will discover or invent new ways (often hidden) of...
Read 5 tweets
12 May
1/5
Good interview. I agree with Leland Miller (@ChinaBeigeBook) that in China a rapid, chaotic debt adjustment – i.e. a financial crisis – is, and has always been, extremely unlikely. Just look at the Huarong debacle. While the risk of crisis will rise as foreign capital...
2/5
becomes an increasingly important part of the Chinese financial system, for now it isn't. As long as the regulators can maintain control of the country's liabilities, and can restructure them at will to prevent a balance-sheet breakdown, there is unlikely to be a crisis.
3/5
This doesn't mean debt isn't a problem. Once debt can no longer rise, there'll be an adjustment in which the overvalued assets that back the debt are effectively amortized, and this adjustment must have an adverse impact both on reported wealth (what John Kenneth Galbraith...
Read 5 tweets

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