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Cem Karsan 🥐 Profile picture
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17 May, 7 tweets, 2 min read
1/x tick tock, ⏰ it’s almost time... With 2.5 days left until Vixperation, the (potentially combustible)FOMC minutes, & Vanna’s long awaited pre Memorial Day departure for the 🏖 slated for 5/19, a deadline for the bulls to regain their footing in the SPX w/ a close above
2/x the 1.5 std dev up of the 20 day is quickly approaching... Given this, and Vanna’s current strength, a Game of 🐔 there seems all but inevitable... as we’ve mentioned, the🪟for a rally is closing, so ironically🕰 is not a 🐂’s friend for once...A decline now when we are
3/x ultimately in a🪟💪🏼 opens the way for something faster & potentially more dangerous when vanna/Charm are forced to leave for the 🏖 amidst an already nascent decline.👀 vanna in the AM...in the ST, If she looks a bit more tired than usual, prepare for a potential opportunity
4/x to take a shot @ our*** for a ☠️ 🐈‍⬛ bounce after her usual morning shift...as I’ve mentioned, fundamentally this market has been flashing⚠️signs, as speculative retail pain’s becoming more widespread as the NDX, ARKK names & international markets continue to dramatically
5/x underperform...NTM, the overnight BTC weakness & you start to see a market w/ a lot of retail pain, that is being held together almost exclusively by Vanna’s hard work in the S&P’s & increasing structural buyback flows, while fundamental market flow weakness otherwise seems
6/x pervasive (see DIX) with Tax selling tomorrow as well as continued selling in tech from lock up releases into EOQ should be another headwind. These coinciding w/👸&🦥’s trip to the 🏖, waning seasonality, & momentum if we haven’t gotten the SPX back above the 1.5 std dev up
7/7would spell trouble. Look to buy June Fed Event Vol as it should begin to matter more & more in the next several weeks if inflation starts showing more signs w/ the new reopening thrust from the mask mandate removal moving to center stage. Be 💦. Good luck! 🍀

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More from @jam_croissant

Cem Karsan 🥐 Profile picture
14 May
1/x So Gary got all fired up w/Taiwán/Japan took away his🍌.but then he realized Vanna/Charm almost always have extra🍌during this🪟of strength...A little bit of cold water (slowing rate of decline) ultimately leads to a decline in IVol from an elevated level, which leads to more
2/x supportive Vanna flows—> which leads to a decline of IVol_—> repeat. Ultimately this rarely means an easing in, but more times than not a full about face reversal back on land. That said 🍌 become less available after Vixperation on 5/19, when Vanna is no longer around.
3/x So, if this market can’t make it above 1.5 std dev up by 5/19-21, there will likely be another, hangry tantrum on the way, and this time potentially much deeper and several weeks long. In the meantime, as long as we are in this💪🏼🪟& above Vanna’s 4115 supply of 🍌’s & Gary is
Read 8 tweets
Cem Karsan 🥐 Profile picture
12 May
1/x Our 2 day slide has hit a speed bump...The problem w/ speed bumps in markets though, is they don’t just slow markets down, they eventually tend to lead to reversals. A slowing rate of decline ultimately leads to a decline in IVol from an elevated level, which leads to more
2/x supportive Vanna flows—> which leads to a decline of IVol_—> repeat. this is why Ndx strength today was more important than it may have seemed. It stemmed the rate of change in the overall market, several times throughout the day releasing vanna & ultimately driving another
3/x last minute kick save. @ the EOD. If the NDX Can hang in again, the market is oversold, p/C eqty ratios are higher than they have been all year & speak to a level of retail pain/ fear that we haven’t seen all year. Liquidations like this ultimately are correlated with.
Read 10 tweets
Cem Karsan 🥐 Profile picture
11 May
1/x A short 🥐 in order to lend a hand to the weary out there tonight❤️.The negative flows in the NDX/ARKK/IGV names as we’ve discussed as the potential source of weakness is giving🦍a real fight for his 🍌...Our fragility & neg flow plays for convexity, funded primo neutral w/
2/x local SPX Vol, has paid off in ♠️. This is why you never 🏊‍♀️ naked...if the 🌊 is going to go out, this is the beach where it happens... It looks like we are in for a🐔fight again this ⏰ here @ the 1 stdev down of the 20 day on close. Keep choppin’. If it can hold & not close
3/x below for 2 days & the NDX can stabilize, w/ 🦍, 👸, 🦥 all at their 💪🏼’est there’s still reason for optimism... That said, this is a 🪟of 💪🏼 , if we can’t get the support we’d like to get here between now & 5/19, there is a potential fat tail lurking... vanna/Charm 🕰 should
Read 5 tweets
Cem Karsan 🥐 Profile picture
10 May
1/x With the VIX back down to 16.69, Gary’s working his special brand of Magic... it’s that time where our charming, lovable friend 🦥, under Gary’s watchful 👁 takes over his role as host of the WofF. & w/ term structure & skew as steep as it is & Vanna chipping in, it’s
2/x unlikely we’ll see anything but the high ratings that we’ve become accustomed to...we’ve now closed over a rising 20 day for over 5 weeks. This momentum & ++flows are hard to ignore & betting against continued success of a game like the WofF in this🪟of💪🏼’s a dogmatic🌷dream.
3/x We’ve been clear 🕰 was not a 🐻friend...Regardless of NFP on Fri morning, this long expected rally to our ***Resistance was virtually an inevitability after the ‘event’...That said, w/the perception of yields under control in the shortterm, we have even more potential for
Read 7 tweets
Cem Karsan 🥐 Profile picture
7 May
1/x no need to ✍️ anything new. Long day today, just going to just repeat what I have said prior & 😴, Vanna is primed & ready to feast!Tomorrow’s NFP will likely correlate w/her usual market 🪟of 💪🏼 regardless of the #...but w/Ivol offered & sentiment building, it’ll be a grind.
2/x momentum is still strong and technical support is still yet to be broken. So, despite the taper tantrum fear driving flows, & their systemic importance, Under this dynamic, as we’ve discussed 🕰 is not a 🐻’s friend. W/the bollinger bands tightening, it won’t take much to get
3/x a break out to ATH. 👀 that 20 day on close. 👀 those AM & PM Vanna/Charm flows, 👀 Fixed strike vols to see if Gary is being FED the 🍌’s he needs to hold the set together, so that vanna Can continúe to work. 👀 7 year yields 😂... Continúe to 👀 NDX for leadership. Strength
Read 5 tweets
Cem Karsan 🥐 Profile picture
5 May
1/x what it takes to get a prediction with its path 💯% accurate is essentially no different than facing Super Mario’s spinning flames of death for the 1st time w/only a cursory experience of how the game works. Getting it right takes deep preparation, concentration, & discipline
2/x Today was a perfect example. Despite having the NDX relative weakness pegged & an understanding that this NDX relative weakness if it continued to expand would force @ min a game of 🐔 for the SPX @ the 20 day, and likely a break there would lead to a bigger liquidation, &
3/x also knowing that in the morning and late day Vanna would be around, and with Gary still oversupplied, Vanna would likely still be able to get the upper hand, it took a lot of discipline & timely focus to turn short immediately on the vanna flows in the morning & long for the
Read 12 tweets

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