1/x what it takes to get a prediction with its path 💯% accurate is essentially no different than facing Super Mario’s spinning flames of death for the 1st time w/only a cursory experience of how the game works. Getting it right takes deep preparation, concentration, & discipline
2/x Today was a perfect example. Despite having the NDX relative weakness pegged & an understanding that this NDX relative weakness if it continued to expand would force @ min a game of 🐔 for the SPX @ the 20 day, and likely a break there would lead to a bigger liquidation, &
3/x also knowing that in the morning and late day Vanna would be around, and with Gary still oversupplied, Vanna would likely still be able to get the upper hand, it took a lot of discipline & timely focus to turn short immediately on the vanna flows in the morning & long for the
4/x approx $2 Bil in MOC Vanna flows for the kick save and then algo driven AH Flows we’re now seeing... more Vanna flows are likely on their way tonight into tomorrow AM, but w/out more NDX strength & an ES rally above the 4179***these will continue to be dealer flows (albeit
5/x powerful & growing flows) battling what otherwise is a weakening fundamental macro tape. These flows can only handle so much, and As Gary loses his grip, which he is potentially on the precipice of doing w/a close below the 20 day by EOD 5/6, Vanna’s flows would become less
6/x consistent & her timing would become more erratic. Ultimately, these flows, though stronger w/the rise in IVol & accelerating into this Friday’s NFP & the next 2 weeks, are no match for the Macro flows (Fed/Treasury) if Msrs Powers & Yellen choose to see to it that Gary isn’t
7/x well FED. Ultimately, we know vanna flows are here & accelerating, we also know that Gary is still relatively well supplied. momentum is still strong and technical support is still yet to be broken. So, despite the taper tantrum fear driving flows, & their systemic importance
8/x those flows, their scale & predictability is a bit less reliable particularly until we know what NFP will look like ob Friday. Under this dynamic, as we’ve discussed 🕰 is not a 🐻’s friend. W/the bollinger bands tightening, it won’t take much to get a significant break out
9/x 1 way or another. & a breakout is coming soon... 👀 that 20 day on close. 👀 those AM & PM Vanna/Charm flows, 👀 Fixed strike vols to see if Gary is being FED the 🍌’s he needs to hold the set together, so that vanna Can continúe to work. 👂for more trial🎈regarding taper, as
10/x The FED wrestles w/ how to get themselves out of the📦 w/out overturning the 🍎 cart. NFP on Friday will be huge...Watch for clues late tomorrow & all day Thurs for what that # and the impending reaction will be. Continúe to 👀 NDX for leadership. Strength there should give
11/x the green🚦ro risk assets and allow vanna to take over. Expanded Weakness w/ a sustained break of the 20 day could lead to a bit of catch up from SPX. Until we break the 20 day, the burden of proof remains on 🐻 tho. BTD, scalping at our levels aggressively, particularly at
12/12 vanna/Charm hours w/out a break of 4179, lean short as those flows dissipate. Continúe to add to fragility & flow plays in ARKK & IGV for convexity, funded premium neutral w/local SPX Vol. A sustained break🆙those levels w/ lower iVol’d be a sign of continued💪🏼Good Luck!🍀
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