1/x what it takes to get a prediction with its path 💯% accurate is essentially no different than facing Super Mario’s spinning flames of death for the 1st time w/only a cursory experience of how the game works. Getting it right takes deep preparation, concentration, & discipline
2/x Today was a perfect example. Despite having the NDX relative weakness pegged & an understanding that this NDX relative weakness if it continued to expand would force @ min a game of 🐔 for the SPX @ the 20 day, and likely a break there would lead to a bigger liquidation, &
3/x also knowing that in the morning and late day Vanna would be around, and with Gary still oversupplied, Vanna would likely still be able to get the upper hand, it took a lot of discipline & timely focus to turn short immediately on the vanna flows in the morning & long for the
4/x approx $2 Bil in MOC Vanna flows for the kick save and then algo driven AH Flows we’re now seeing... more Vanna flows are likely on their way tonight into tomorrow AM, but w/out more NDX strength & an ES rally above the 4179***these will continue to be dealer flows (albeit
5/x powerful & growing flows) battling what otherwise is a weakening fundamental macro tape. These flows can only handle so much, and As Gary loses his grip, which he is potentially on the precipice of doing w/a close below the 20 day by EOD 5/6, Vanna’s flows would become less
6/x consistent & her timing would become more erratic. Ultimately, these flows, though stronger w/the rise in IVol & accelerating into this Friday’s NFP & the next 2 weeks, are no match for the Macro flows (Fed/Treasury) if Msrs Powers & Yellen choose to see to it that Gary isn’t
7/x well FED. Ultimately, we know vanna flows are here & accelerating, we also know that Gary is still relatively well supplied. momentum is still strong and technical support is still yet to be broken. So, despite the taper tantrum fear driving flows, & their systemic importance
8/x those flows, their scale & predictability is a bit less reliable particularly until we know what NFP will look like ob Friday. Under this dynamic, as we’ve discussed 🕰 is not a 🐻’s friend. W/the bollinger bands tightening, it won’t take much to get a significant break out
9/x 1 way or another. & a breakout is coming soon... 👀 that 20 day on close. 👀 those AM & PM Vanna/Charm flows, 👀 Fixed strike vols to see if Gary is being FED the 🍌’s he needs to hold the set together, so that vanna Can continúe to work. 👂for more trial🎈regarding taper, as
10/x The FED wrestles w/ how to get themselves out of the📦 w/out overturning the 🍎 cart. NFP on Friday will be huge...Watch for clues late tomorrow & all day Thurs for what that # and the impending reaction will be. Continúe to 👀 NDX for leadership. Strength there should give
11/x the green🚦ro risk assets and allow vanna to take over. Expanded Weakness w/ a sustained break of the 20 day could lead to a bit of catch up from SPX. Until we break the 20 day, the burden of proof remains on 🐻 tho. BTD, scalping at our levels aggressively, particularly at
12/12 vanna/Charm hours w/out a break of 4179, lean short as those flows dissipate. Continúe to add to fragility & flow plays in ARKK & IGV for convexity, funded premium neutral w/local SPX Vol. A sustained break🆙those levels w/ lower iVol’d be a sign of continued💪🏼Good Luck!🍀

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More from @jam_croissant

7 May
1/x no need to ✍️ anything new. Long day today, just going to just repeat what I have said prior & 😴, Vanna is primed & ready to feast!Tomorrow’s NFP will likely correlate w/her usual market 🪟of 💪🏼 regardless of the #...but w/Ivol offered & sentiment building, it’ll be a grind.
2/x momentum is still strong and technical support is still yet to be broken. So, despite the taper tantrum fear driving flows, & their systemic importance, Under this dynamic, as we’ve discussed 🕰 is not a 🐻’s friend. W/the bollinger bands tightening, it won’t take much to get
3/x a break out to ATH. 👀 that 20 day on close. 👀 those AM & PM Vanna/Charm flows, 👀 Fixed strike vols to see if Gary is being FED the 🍌’s he needs to hold the set together, so that vanna Can continúe to work. 👀 7 year yields 😂... Continúe to 👀 NDX for leadership. Strength
Read 5 tweets
5 May
1/x What it’s like to be Le🥐 on TWTR...after being spotOn 9/10 days for the last 10 months on both shorterm & longterm direction & path, NTM both macro & microstructural catalysts of them & IVol, dispersion, skew & term structure, I received grief today when market briefly
2/x dropped below the 20 day...Despite: 1) calling for NDX/IWM underperformance for a week ✅ 2)telling people to look for a likely coming game of 🐔 @ the 20 day since last Friday. ✅ 3) specifically tweeting this morning after AM vanna flows back to 4180 to be prepared for an
3/x imminent game of 🐔 ✅ 4)at 1pm w/ SPX trading 4133 tweeting to be prepared for more games of🐔✅ 5)Telling followers to be long convexity funded by local Vol ✅ 6) telling followers to own calendar spreads which have expanded aggressively 2 weeks now ✅ 7)Telling followers
Read 6 tweets
3 May
1/x The Fed gave the market a clear green light. And despite negative flows at EOM due to risk parity rebalancing & the discussed~$100B of supply coming to market via lockup’s & Corp🪟’s by Qtr end, concentrated in tech, & concerns
2/x surrounding tax selling & waning seasonality, Gary 🦍 has barely flinched..He maintains a very steady hand and w/👸&🦥 finally back from 🏖late in the day Fri, as expected, & w/ it being BOM the Wheel of Fortune is fully staffed w/their Full cast of characters, refreshed &
3/x ready to go. The burden of proof remains on the 🐻 to disprove the bull thesis at this point, as ⏰ is not a 🐻’s friend until 5/19. The 20-60 day momentum is undeniable. Don’t over think it. Price is truth. When a graph continues to proceed bottom left to top right and the
Read 9 tweets
30 Apr
1/x This market is battling what should be an Easy Green tape after hours...W/ Ivols ascending off of a new base @16 VIX & continuing to find support into a rally, there’s reason to believe that Gary🦍hasn’t been getting the same daily dose of🍌’s he has grown accustomed to the
2/x last 24 hrs. & w/out a well FED Gary 🦍,things could quickly spin out of control on the Wheel of Fortune...Luckily 👸&🦥are on their way back from the🏖late in the day, & w/ it being EOM/BOM they should be refreshed & ready to go starting around 2pm CST, assuming Gary can
3/x hold it together until then...As I’ve said in the past, often it’s what doesn’t happen relative to expectations that informs us about the strength of the 35% of flows that we don’t see. If we’re unable to rally to our🎯‘ed resistance of ***4235 by 5/3 AM, w/👸&🦥back, this’ll
Read 8 tweets
28 Apr
1/x A short & sweet midweek 🥐... Everything from Mon👇 still applies. Despite every reason to see a price decline, Gary 🦍, Vanna 👸, & Charm 🦥 have other plans. SPX IVol is getting the💩squeezed out of it. With the 1 day event straddle at only $20 w/ Fed & SOTU tomorrow,
2/x Dealers are playing ‘Hot Crossed Buns’ w/anything w/theta. Don’t fight a well FED🦍, especially when the zookeepers are entering the cages🍌in hand...Don’t do it. regardless of the fundamentals, or the narrative, or the technicals, or the sentiment, or the positioning...’
3/x especially as The🪟is closing & Vanna👸& Our charming 🦥 are packing their bags, ready to return from the 🏖 & add a little well rested summer support...Unless The Zoo keepers decide to wreak havoc & take the🍌’s away, dispersión is the play.
Read 5 tweets
26 Apr
1/x so here we are after 2 weeks of a 🐌’s pace, correction in ⏰. The🪟is closing & our🐌is now primed for liftoff. As I explained last Sun night, the markets had every reason to decline in this🪟already. But it hasn’t even played🐔. Despite a long list of reasons to be🐻’ish,
2/x including: 1)Vanna👸&Charm🦥 away @ the 🏖 for an extended vacay, 2) sentiment/positioning historically stretched by almost every metric, 3) a VVIX/VIX ratio blinking🚨, 4)earnings season after a massive run calling for what should be some natural profit taking 5)an imminent
3/x Tax season & 1 year anniversary of longs also calling for profit taking selling flows, 6)seasonality waning as we head towards May 7)& most importantly, a Fed that’s more likely than expected to begin walking back its ultra loose rhetoric, as we continue to see upside
Read 10 tweets

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