Thread by @DavidHenigUK

One day into discussing UK free trade deals and the simplism on display is already showing why it is so difficult to have a sensible policy debate in this country. You'd never believe that trade agreements are controversial and complex policy choices everywhere. Let's unpack.

https://twitter.com/APHClarkson/status/1394663926252646400

First of all terminology. Free trade agreements do not deliver free trade. Rather at minimum they reduce tariffs and increase services access compared to those under WTO rules, typically accompanied by more detailed rules for trade in a whole range of areas.

Given that tariffs paid by developed countries are on average very low, reducing them further has limited if positive economic impact. Improving services access or reducing non-tariff barriers may have a greater impact, but are pretty difficult to achieve.

However that limited economic impact from reduced tariffs comes at the expense of sensitive economic sectors like agriculture. And we know they're sensitive because otherwise we'd already have removed the tariffs. In trade deals governments pick winners and losers.

The there are the rules and regulations covering trade. Everybody accepts the need for these, but few agree on the detail. Banning the products of slave labour seems uncontroversial, but banning the product of excessive antibiotic usage is more controversial.

Then there is public acceptance. Those who push for purely free markets in the UK typically also believe sovereignty is more important than trade when it comes to the EU. Others see lost jobs to China. Whether or not these are right, it is going to affect political decisions.

Trade deals are controversial. Always have been actually. Not surprisingly as they are treaties covering increasingly wide ranges of policy choices. As we're now finding out. Here's one I prepared four years ago... any chance of a serious debate now? uktradeforum.net/2017/09/28/tra…

Probably best to finish with how the controversies of trade deals are resolved. Through compromises. Not quite as much trade liberalisation perhaps. Or rules on eligibility for lower tariffs. Or agreement to shared regulatory approaches. No reason UK and Australia can't do this.