5/ The CDC got the science right. We now know that:
- the Pfizer & Moderna vaccines are 90% effective in reducing risk of transmission, AND
- if you have a breakthrough infection after vaxx, you're unlikely to transmit it onward to others.
If you're vaccinated, you're protected.
6/ But a change in policy and guidance should have been made in collaboration with other government agencies (esp @OSHA_DOL), local & state health depts, schools, private sector, unions -- i.e. all the stakeholders affected by this change.
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1/ @SurgoVentures keeps doing great work on vaccine confidence and behavioral science. nytimes.com/interactive/20…
They break unvaccinated people into 4 psychobehavioral archetypes: the Watchful, the Cost-Anxious, the System Distrusters, and the Covid Skeptics.
2/ How to reach folks and encourage them to get vaccinated depends on how they think about COVID and vaccination.
3/ Here's a map of COVID Skeptics:
- Almost everyone in this group believes at least one conspiracy theory about COVID.
- Where the pink goes far outside the square, there's a lot of skepticism.
- Where the pink remains inside the square, there's a lot less skepticism.
1/ CDC's new mask guidance:
Fully vaxx’d do not need to mask.
EXCEPTIONS:
- Healthcare and long-term care facilities
- Travel by bus, plane, train, public transportation
- Transportation hubs
- Prisons, jails, homeless shelter
- If you have symptoms? Mask & test.
Some thoughts…
2/ The science shows that:
- VACCINATED people are PROTECTED
- UNVACCINATED people are at RISK
Cases are down by 1/3 in the last 2 weeks.
The risk of vaxx’d persons transmitting to others is very low.
HOWEVER...
1/ We need to do a better job of vaccinating the Latinx community in the U.S. A lower % of Latinx adults have been vaccinated than white / Black adults, yet more Latinx adults want to get vaccinated ASAP than white / Black adults. This is UNMET DEMAND.
2/ Latinx adults are worried about themselves / family getting sick from COVID than Black / white adults. This worry is even higher among potentially undocumented, Spanish-speaking, &/or poorer Latinx adults = more likely frontline workers & fewer protections against COVID.
3/ Risk factors for not being vaccinated despite wanting to get vaccinated ASAP: immigration status, Spanish-speaking, uninsured. Look how high vaccination rates are among permanent residents vs potentially undocumented Latinx. They understand risk, but ACCESS is a barrier.
2/ We came into the conversation thinking that many of their concerns would revolve around women's health issues (e.g. fertility, pregnancy, breastfeeding, menstruation). At least two of the women were pregnant.
3a/ But their biggest concerns were no different from many other groups:
- How could the vaccines have been developed this quickly?
- What are the long-term side-effects?
- Are the vaccines safe and effective in people who have underlying medical conditions like me?
1/ On the issue of whether you need to mask outdoors, folks are conflating population attributable risk (the % of disease due to an exposure) with individual risk of disease from an exposure.
2/ @VauseCNN's skydiving analogy is a fairly good one. Not many people die from skydiving accidents per year, but skydiving is a high-risk activity.
3/ But the analogy isn't perfect because you can't transmit skydiving disease & death. In calculating population attributable risk, we should also take into account that SARS-CoV-2 is transmissible.
Here's who's most and least enthusiastic about getting vaccinated:
2/ We've made progress with those who want to "wait & see" across multiple demographics including communities of color and conservatives, who were the least vaccine confident at the start.
The % who definitely don't want to get vaccinated has remained stable since January.