Thread by @RevoltCap

#Bitcoin update May 19th, 2021

1/ The market is going fast, we're at the make or break it level IMO. Exiting stuff 🔥

-4hr bull div still intact
-200 MA touched
-38K $BTC make or break level
-Many inflow and outflow signals
-Lots of fear in the market
-Large hash rate drop

2/ $BTC touched the 200 MA which could function as a support level and at the same time provides a compelling level to go long for institutional players

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3/ 4hr bull div is still intact after that 4hr hammer close

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4/ we are close to a make or break it level IMO, a daily close below 38K increases the likelihood of a longer consolidation and potentially deeper correction

This would mark a >40% correction with a daily close, we haven't seen that in 2017

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5/ The macro top is very likely not in, so I'm talking about 3-6 months consolidation followed by the 2nd half of this bull run

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6/ Yesterday we saw huge inflows at Binance, in part probably responsible for the drop. However, today we also see huge outflows. Great battle going on at this level

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7/ Lots of fear in the market, fear from a profit/loss (NUPL) perspective is at the same level as the July and September 2017 bottoms

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8/ new FUD from China: inner Mongolia is shutting down miners and at the same time the rain season is kicking in, so hash rate is on the move

This results in a significant hash rate drop. It will be important to see how fast it gets up again

https://twitter.com/caprioleio/status/1394929396004294656?s=20

9/ Hash rate drops are an interesting phenomenon, I often see volatility rise when we see big swings in hash rate. As if it creates a self-fulfilling FUD prophecy or either a manipulated one

#Bitcoin $BTC

10. I see 2 scenarios:

1. 60% probability:
We bounce this week, consolidate 1-2 months between 38K-60K and break out

2. 40% probability:
We lose 38K and the current correction becomes a mini bear market (3-9 months)

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11. Closing off, we're at an important level and moment in this bull run. These moments only happen a few times each run

The larger thesis is still fully intact, see yesterdays thread :

https://twitter.com/RevoltCap/status/1394574745010589696?s=20

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12. There's only one thing we can do and that's taking it day by day.

One thing I'm sure of: this ecosystem is far from reaching its full potential, we're still early.

So whatever happens: zoom out and think long term

#Bitcoin $BTC