Thread by @franzjmarty

One of several problems with the @LongWarJournal @billroggio #Taliban Control Map is that it heavily relies on media reports that often cover the fall of a district to the Taliban, but NOT the recapture by the Afghan government—which leads to a more than distorted result.(1/10)

https://twitter.com/and_huh_what/status/1394616756904370181

For example, Baghlan-e Markazi in Baghlan fell only briefly to the Taliban, but was recapture within less than a day although fighting is still under way. The same applies to Dahan-e Ghori in Baghlan and Farsi in Herat. (2/10)

Chapa Dara in Kunar is not fully Taliban-controlled; I was there in late March. Surkhrud and Khogyani in Nangarhar are also not fully Taliban-controlled; again, I have been in these districts recently. (3/10)

Zurmat in Paktia is a Taliban stronghold, but not fully Taliban-controlled; I drove through the district in mid-May. And these are only the most glaring mistakes that I spotted quickly looking at the map. (4/10)

In general, I think mapping control in Afghanistan is almost impossible. One major problem is that—due to the stark differences between an insurgency and a government—it is difficult, if at all possible to apply even standards. (5/10)

Exemplifying this, all the maps that exist employ very different standards for Taliban- and government-control. The government is usually expected to provide more or less full security and services to be in full control, meaning a strong physical presence. (6/10)

Meanwhile, the absence of government forces in a place is regularly translated into Taliban control, although the Taliban have often at best limited open, permanent physical presences in areas "controlled" by them. (7/10)

E.g., in 2017 a BBC reporter travelling to northern Helmand, the clearest Taliban-controlled area, said: “You can travel here for miles without seeing an armed person. It is more the idea of the Taliban that dominates here rather than their presence” (bbc.com/news/world-asi…)8/10

Although the Taliban have nowadays some permanent checkpoints in certain areas, the BBC’s impression from 2017 arguably still largely applies now.

In view of all this, Taliban “control” tends to get overstated. (9/10)

If someone would want to make a honest map, it would probably consist mostly of undetermined blank areas and islands of Taliban- / government-control and contestation. (10/10)