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Colin Angus Profile picture
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20 May, 4 tweets, 2 min read
Here's a comparison of the age profile of COVID cases in Bolton during the outbreaks there in Sept/Oct, Dec/Jan and the current one.

Many more cases now in schoolchildren, almost certainly due to higher testing. But also far fewer cases in over 50s and almost none in over 70s.
R code for these plots is here:
github.com/VictimOfMaths/…
Here's the whole story in Bolton on a single plot, showing case *numbers* rather than *rates* this time so everything isn't dominated by very high 90+ case rates in January.

The age profile of this outbreak is clearly different to what has gone before.

💉👍
(this last plot taken from this app)
victimofmaths.shinyapps.io/COVID_Cases_By…

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More from @VictimOfMaths

Colin Angus Profile picture
20 May
COVID case numbers in Bolton do look rather scary.

BUT...
These cases are very heavily weighted towards younger age groups who are less likely to have been offered a vaccine and are less likely to end up in hospital.

There has been a rise in cases in people in their 50s/60s in the last few days of complete data, which we need to watch
Overall the age profile of cases in the current outbreak in Bolton is quite different to what we've seen before.

Some of this will be differences in testing, particularly among schoolchildren, but I doubt we're testing people aged 50+ less than we were back in January.
Read 12 tweets
Colin Angus Profile picture
18 May
It's too early for any uptick in case rates in Bolton (or anywhere else) to have fed through into hospital admissions or deaths yet (not that we would expect them to), but enough people have complained about it, so here's a graph showing that these measures still look just fine. Image
The other UK nations also looking just dandy. ImageImageImage
And every region in England also looking fine. We're pretty close to the lowest levels we hit at any point last year after march. 👍 Image
Read 4 tweets
Colin Angus Profile picture
17 May
I had a quick look at the COVID-19 lineage data from @sangerinstitute by English region

If you look at B.1.617.2 (the 'Indian' variant) as a proportion of all genomes sequenced, it isn't hard to see why people are worried about it.

covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw Image
But in absolute terms, the number of confirmed cases of the 'Indian' variant is small compared to the number of cases of the 'Kent' and other variants we have seen in recent months. Image
(I'm interested, incidentally, if anyone can explain to me why there were so many more genomes being sequenced in the North West and Yorkshire in the last few months, compared to the rest of the country)
Read 4 tweets
Colin Angus Profile picture
17 May
🚨New paper klaxon🚨

Out now in @AddictionJrnl a really important and excellent piece of work from @jenniferevab systematically reviewing all of the explanations that have been posited for the 'Alcohol Harm Paradox' of inequality in alcohol-related harm

onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/ad… Image
Study after study has shown that more deprived groups drink less, but suffer more harm, compared to their more affluent peers. But why?

This review identifies 79 different papers which have collectively suggested 41 different possible explanations for this paradox (the 'AHP').
These can be grouped into six domains:

1) Individual - factors within individuals affecting susceptibility to alcohol-related harm (e.g. poor health)

2) Lifestyle - differences in health behaviour, particularly around risk behaviours (e.g. drinking patterns)
Read 8 tweets
Colin Angus Profile picture
5 Feb
New data today from @NISRA shows all-cause deaths have fallen, but remain very slightly above the peak in 2010-19 for this time of year, and a fair way above the average.
The number of deaths from COVID-19 has fallen, but is still higher than at any point during 2020.
In the context of the rest of the UK though, Northern Ireland isn't doing too badly...
Read 4 tweets
Colin Angus Profile picture
5 Feb
Forgot to update these plots when the latest ONS mortality data came out the other day.

There were ~ 250 COVID-19 deaths a day in English care homes in the week to 29th January. This is pretty grim, but the numbers have at least stopped rising.
Care home residents are still mostly dying in care homes, rather than in hospital.
There's a lot of variation in these figures across the country, but in Essex, Portsmouth, West Sussex and Wirral, over two thirds of care home deaths in the last week were from COVID.
Read 4 tweets

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