Thread by @LumberTrading

Lumber thoughts:
Things I’m seeing now that are new to this rally:

1- demand side is finally pushing back. Capacity complaints more so than price complaints.

2- lumber yards willing to buy for deliveries 8 weeks out. Trying to get coverage for q3 at record higher prices.

🧵

3- May futures expiration was kinda....boring. If there was a scramble for prompt wood, May contract would have shot up that last week of trading. It didn’t.

4- My business of JIT truck delivery is slow and volatile. Not much panic.

5- Sawmill inventories trending up per data

6- Sawmills haven’t been able to increase prices for a week. Still have sold out into June, but not beyond...yet!

7- I’m not bullish.

These are the things I observe.

Nothing will change until producers run out of presales. So it’s a standstill until early June to see who blinks.

Very February/April like. Another standoff. But as per points above, I’m giving the buy-side the advantage

8. Forgot this big one: home center has sucked up so much wood to start the year. All channel checks show inventory levels very high.

Lowe’s types don’t service SFH builders.

Home center demand peaks soon (right?). There will be more wood available for the open market soon