The current Tether drama unequivocally proves that the current stablecoin regulatory regime is not good enough.
There are two possible explanations for Tether's behavior. One is, as many skeptics (including me) have argued, that Tether is basically a massive fraud and has been
engaging in shadow accounting games and offering half-truth-based public statements to extend the scam for as long as they can, while continuing to invest in all sorts of risky crypto assets and pumping the market to push their price up.
The other is that Tether's leadership
are trying the best they can, but through either extremely poor decision-making or basic lack of capacity have repeatedly failed to provide the kinds of assurances and transparency that would otherwise be required for an entity of their size and activity.
I think there's little
doubt that the former is more true than the latter, not least because it's the only narrative consistent with the NYAG's findings thus far.
But even if that other more charitable narrative is true, the important point is that *it just as easily could not be*. In other words, we
are, at very best, currently facing a "Schrodinger's Stablecoin" situation, where the only way to know whether it's a fraud or legit is to open the box.
But this is the problem: Tether's leadership acts like as long as the box is opened and the stablecoin backing is there, then
they are vindicated. But that's wrong. The fact that Tether has been able to grow to $60bn in size *while still operating as a Schrodinger's Stablecoin, where it's (at best) uncertain whether it's legit or completely full of shit, is itself a massive, massive regulatory failure.
"Does our new mystery soda drink contain lead that may kill your children? There's only one way to find out, buy ten thousand cans today, and wait and see!"
See how insane that sounds? And yet that is basically the Tether model. Even if we happen to live in the dimension where
this time, somehow, Tether was actually legit and telling the truth all along, and its greatest sin was poor communication strategy, the point remains that *there are a thousand other parallel universes that look exactly the same as this one except that Tether was a fraud.*
That
is the problem, that is the deepest issue here. We cannot and should not allow $60bn companies to exist where the core question of "are they completely fraudulent pieces of shit" can remain ambiguous indefinitely and throughout a meteoric rise.
No more Schrodinger's Stablecoins.
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It's tempting in these moments to interpreting something like "reducing price tag from $2.3T to $1.7T" in the way you might a scene from a movie where two people are haggling over the price of a rare item, or one of them providing a service the other needs to complete a quest etc
But that's not what's going on here. We're talking about $600bn of investments, of projects, of money going to particular communities for particular needs, hard-won through years of organizing and advocacy, just vanishing up in smoke as a token of compromise to a hostile enemy.
In a movie, someone who wanted $20, and who is offered $5, and who settles on $10, still gets $10. And maybe they even overvalued their initial bid precisely to get to this number.
That's not how the budget works. A thousand programs or communities in need of that $600bn dont
One of the biggest problems with cryptoland is that the vast majority of people in it conflate technological know-how with monetary & financial system know-how.
If you don't understand how banking works, that's fine! But for god's sake stop deluding yourself and others about it.
There are a lot of sovereign citizen crazies out there that have convinced themselves that they've discovered the cheat codes to The Law and the Constitution. But of course, they haven't, they're making a dumb person's idea of what a good legal argument sounds like.
The same is true for a significant portion of the crypto community that believes banks lend out reserves, or multiple deposits by 10x via "fractional reserve banking," and can't understand the difference between "100% reserves" and a money market fund-style balance sheet.
Some ppl like to criticize MMT for suggesting we can do big spending programs without 1:1 commensurate tax increases. For some, it takes the wind out of args for taxing the rich (it doesnt). Others think it's fantasy to think you can spend big w/o higher middle class taxes.
But
once you get past all of rhetoric and incoherent conflation of nominal and real variables, what this critical view really boils down to is the argument that it's better for progressives to adopt a Manchin-style strategy in budget negotiations.
The MMT position has always been that it's both unnecessary and self-defeating to pick two fights at the same time - one over the spending program, another over the taxes that people want to tie to it.
Our view has been that this two-front strategy usually means loss on both.
- a blunt tool with lots of negative side effects
- by definition not targeted to the actual source of inflation
- potentially counterproductive due to contradictory effects of income channel vs price channel
- usually considered to exclusion of all else
New Keynesians have for years relied on interest rate adjustments to singlehandedly manage inflation outside of the ZLB/ELB, as Jason's own thread asserted.
What's the point in acknowledging it's shortcomings if you're just going to default back to knee-jerk reliance on it?
It's like someone looking for their keys a mile from where they lost them because that's where the light is, someone points out it's not where they lost them, and they say 'I agree, my search approach has shortcomings but I'm still gonna search here first".
Watching leftists and people whose ostensible raison d'etre come to the defense of Substack by criticizing Ghost is pretty sad.
By any objective metric, a non-profit that provides a f/oss product capable of being self-hosted, and which funds the development of that product via
paid hosting services, is far more aligned with progressive values re: concentrated economic power and platform censorship than a VC-funded, for-profit company that solicits big names by paying them advances, and giving them employee-like benefits without actually hiring them.
The real question shouldn't be "why are Nathan and others leaving Substack for Ghost", it should be "why the hell didn't you all move to Ghost in the first place, and why aren't you doing it now independent of Nathan et al's reasons for doing so?"
the idea that the problem is 'terrorists and pedophiles' may be able to publish content, rather than a large commercial platform deliberately amplifying certain prominent voices with its VC money, is the kind of argument spooks and cops use to suppress individual expression.
"The NYT shouldn't solicit and publish Tom Cotton's warmongering lies, i'm going to resign and host my own Wordpress blog instead"
"OMG you know terrorists and pedophiles can get a Raspberry Pi and host a WP site, right? Pre-tty hy-po-cri-ti-cal"