Thread by @jburnmurdoch

Just two quick charts on B.1.617.2 today:

Cases continue to climb in Bolton, Blackburn & Bedford, (known B.1.617.2 hotspots), though rate of acceleration in Bolton has slowed slightly, and test positivity there is flat, suggesting surge testing is playing a role in 📈

Continued increase in those areas would be a concern, and it’s worth noting rises in neighbouring Bury and Burnley too.

B.1.617.2 not believed to be dominant in either of these areas, but Sanger data is now 12 days old so that may have changed.

Nonetheless, the same chart shows that high prevalence of B.1.617.2 is by no means a guarantee of prolonged resurgence.

Hounslow, Nottingham and Sefton are all places where B.1.617.2 is believed to be dominant, and yet their upticks reversed and now appear as brief blips.

To be clear, there have been behaviour changes and some small-scale, light-touch restrictions in some of these locations, so drops in cases aren’t necessarily entirely organic.

But nor would any of these examples be described as anything approaching local lockdowns.

I’d sum up that chart as:
• Numbers still climbing in North West, where we know B.1.617.2 is prevalent. Trends haven’t worsened in recent days but nor have they improved. Not terrible, but not great
• Several other B.1.617.2 hotspots faring better: no definitive pattern overall

Second chart:

Across all of the B.1.617.2 hotspots experiencing resurgences, case rises are still largely confined to younger age-groups. This is very good news.

We should get more definitive data on how the vaccines fare against B.1.617.2 in the coming days and weeks, but for now I’d say the continued absence of evidence is beginning to feel to me like evidence of absence [of substantial immune escape].

Other tidbits:
• New PHE technical report on variants expected tomorrow. That should tell us more than the last few days of 4pm dashboard updates have done
• Ramp-up of vaccinations in Bolton is very impressive. More first doses on Tuesday than any time since January