Thread by @dsamuelsohn

NEW: The next two election cycles in America could be a roller-coaster ride for Republicans as Donald Trump and his namesake company face the prospect of criminal charges. A team effort from the @thisisinsider DC bureau ($) businessinsider.com/trump-indictme…

Political insiders are only starting to grasp this increasingly real possibility after NY AG Letitia James' recent statement confirming she's now linked up with the Manhattan DA who has been digging into Trump's financial records after securing that authority from SCOTUS.

Interviews with more than a dozen members of Congress and political operatives this week elicited incredulous looks, knee-jerk reactions, and wild speculation about what prospectively sidelining Trump would mean to the political world.

They realize there will be repercussions — to their own messaging and for whoever runs for president in 2024 — should Trump or his family-run business end up as defendants in a state courtroom. Trump is facing a slew of investigations, from NY to Fulton County GA and in DC.

"It should mean more people jump in the race and don't wait for Trump, claiming that he's distracted," Doug Heye, a GOP strategist and ex-House leadership aide, said of the ripple effects if Trump got indicted as scores of Republicans consider their own White House campaigns.

GOP leaders, Heye added, also wouldn't emerge unscathed.

"While Republican leadership wants to put Trump in the rearview mirror, the investigations, in addition to Trump being back on the stump, make that impossible," he said.

Kurt Bardella, a former House GOP aide who soured on the party with Trump's rise to power, said Republicans dreaming of a return to majority status on Capitol Hill in 2022 and then recapturing the White House two years later should brace for a rude awakening.

"Historically speaking, there's this kind of perception that Democrats could have a challenging midterm. Things like this completely shake up the electoral calculus," he said of a potential indictment.

Trump remains the face of the GOP, remotely dictating details that vary from who's allowed to hold leadership roles to which candidates are cleared to run in the 2022 midterms. He's also the de facto Republican frontrunner for president in 2024 until he says otherwise.

Democrats told Insider they expect Trump could end up playing the victim card if he or members of his entourage are criminally charged, and that could serve to energize a fiercely loyal base that is likely to be critical on the turnout front for Republicans in the 2022 midterms.

"He would say, 'This was an injustice perpetrated by the swamp.' And maybe his people would go along with him," said Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse, a Rhode Island Democrat.

On cue, the twice-impeached former president fumed on his blog on Wednesday over James' latest statement confirming his company is under a state criminal investigation. "They failed to stop me in Washington, so they turned it over to New York to do their dirty work," he wrote.

GOP lawmakers in Congress ducked, dodged, and weaved when asked what they thought about Trump becoming a criminal defendant. Some looked to their hovering aides to save them from saying anything that could provoke the ire of their vindictive leader.

Sen. Ted Cruz: "It's not surprising that we see politically ambitious Democrats trying to attack Donald Trump. It has been their mindless obsession for five years now. And I don't expect any of them to seek treatment any time soon for Trump derangement syndrome."

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell didn't even break stride on the short walk from his office to the chamber floor for an early-afternoon vote Wednesday when Insider asked for comment about the latest Trump-related development from Manhattan.

House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy stared for a full four seconds when asked how a Trump indictment would affect the party.

"That's your question, seriously?" the California Republican eventually fired back. "You guys are crazy."

"It's not theoretical. It's not a subjunctive about whether he's going to be in trouble with the law," Sen. Bob Casey, a Democrat of Pennsylvania, said. "It's a reality."

Rep. Eric Swalwell, a Democrat of California and former prosecutor, urged state officials delving into Trump's most questionable activities to be overly cautious in their work every step of the way.

"I only want him to be indicted if they've got the goods," he told Insider.

"As a former prosecutor, the people I worked with, they just want to follow the evidence. I hope that still applies," Swalwell added. "But I think it's important to show no one is above the law even after four years of him living like he was above the law."

Whitehouse, a former US attorney and RI attorney general, also advocated restraint.

"During the course of a criminal investigation, it's usually the proper role of the prosecutors and the investigating agency to shut up and wait and make their case in court," he said.

"You could have a pretty long run in which Trump and or his organizations are under criminal investigation and it doesn't affect the politics at all," Whitehouse added. "So far nothing has been able to intrude on the loyalty of the cult of Trump."

Lots more in this deep look at the political ramifications of Trump's legal woes by @WARojas @tomlobianco @leonardkl @TinaSfon @elvina_nawaguna and yours truly. Subscribe for the full story and more from the @thisisinsider newsroom. Sign up here: businessinsider.com/trump-indictme…