Update on the situation in Bolton, courtesy of the covid dashboard.

First up, cases are still rising rapidly. Daily case numbers are almost back to the peak they reached during the second wave that hit the North West hard in the autumn.

coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases?… Image
This is despite 65% of Bolton's adult population now having had one vaccine dose and 37% having had both.

Not far behind the national average (70% / 40%).

coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/vaccin… Image
Probably at least in part thanks to vaccinations, infection rates are still relatively low amongst the over 60s.

But they are now clearly rising.

Note: this data is a few days older than the raw case numbers, so the rates will be even higher now.

coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases?… Image
Zooming in shows more clearly how cases in the over 60s have accelerated recently.

As cases usually work their way up the age groups over time, this is something to keep an eye on. Is vaccination enough to stop them rising much further, despite the more transmissible variant? Image
Meanwhile patient numbers in hospital with covid at Bolton NHS Foundation Trust (including Royal Bolton Hospital) remain very low, but are now rising too.

Again, as they always lag behind cases we have to hope vaccination keeps them from rising as steeply as last autumn. Image
The rise has prompted the hospital to open up an additional ward for covid positive patients, with the expectation that the recent surge in cases will inevitably result in more people arriving in hospital over the coming weeks.

And at the other end of the scale, infection rates amongst school age children are currently higher than for any other age group, and higher than they've been in any previous wave.

1 in 135 children in Bolton aged 10-14 tested positive last week alone.

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More from @_johnbye

23 May
PHE's study on vaccine effectiveness against the Indian B.1.617.2 variant is out, clarifying figures leaked to the FT yesterday.

It confirms the 1st dose is less effective against B.1.617.2, but the 2nd dose still gives similar protection. However...

gov.uk/government/new…
As @fascinatorfun pointed out, the FT figures mixed data from both Pfizer and AstraZeneca jabs.

The study breaks it down by vaccine and, on the face of it, isn't good news for AstraZeneca (ChAdOx1).

But they do say this may be partly due to 2nd jabs starting later for AZ. Image
Data for both vaccines on preventing symptomatic cases is similar 21+ days after the first dose -

Pfizer:
49% protection vs B.1.1.7
33% protection vs B.1.617.2

AstraZeneca:
51% protection vs B.1.1.7
33% protection vs B.1.617.2

So about a third less effective against B.1.617.2
Read 9 tweets
22 May
Handy thread on vaccine protection against variants.

First dose seems to be significantly less effective against the B.1.617.2 (Indian) variant.

Second dose still provides excellent protection against both the B.1.1.7 (Kent) and B.1.617.2 variants though.
Looking at how effective vaccines are at stopping you from catching covid and developing symptoms -

1st dose:
51% protection against B.1.1.7
33% protection against B.1.617.2

2nd dose:
87% protection against B.1.1.7
81% protection against B.1.617.2

But it's worth remembering that the vaccines also make you less likely to die or become severely ill if you *do* catch covid.

While we don't have data yet on how this translates to B.1.617.2, there's no evidence it's more deadly than other strains.

Read 5 tweets
16 May
It says a lot that so many politicians and their friends saw the pandemic as a get rich quick scheme.

In this case a disgraced former MP working with an organic dog food company owner (!) to broker a deal with a Hong Kong company, which itself seems to be a middleman. 🙄
Former Tory MP Brooks Newmark emailed Hancock to ask for his help to "make this happen".

Newmark had quit in 2014 after sending explicit photos to an undercover journalist who he thought was a young activist.

Not his first sext, it later emerged.

google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.…
He was lobbying on behalf of Zoe Ley, a former investment banker turned dog food company owner.

She setup a new company in May 2020 which helped broker two PPE deals, worth a total of £258m.

The BBC thinks she personally made over £1m from this.

google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.…
Read 9 tweets
15 May
"Decent hard working folk who aren't covid deniers", at the anti-lockdown protest in London today.

There's someone with a giant Q sign right in the middle of this shot. 🙄
More here, marching alongside covid crank Professor Fenton (who thinks the second wave was mostly false positives).

Pretty much an A to Z of conspiracy theories - QAnon, world government, eugenics, depopulation, child sex rings, microchipping people...

Meanwhile in Canterbury, disgraced former scientist Michael Yeadon (who thinks proposed covid booster shots may be a plot to depopulate the Earth) is addressing people in a park with a PA system.

Having recently complained that he wasn't able to do this.

Read 4 tweets
14 May
SAGE have rushed out minutes of yesterday's meeting, warning of the danger posed by India's B.1.617.2 variant.

As it usually takes several days for minutes to appear online, this looks like an effort to speak out before Monday's lifting of restrictions.

gov.uk/government/pub…
The modelling group's assessment is that B.1.617.2 seems to be 50% more transmissible than the B.1.1.7 Kent variant.

There's a stark warning that without measures to slow its spread this could cause an "unsustainable" surge in hospitalisations.

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…
They predict hospitalisations could again reach the kind of levels seen last April and this January, if nothing is done to stop it.

And DOUBLE that if the next step is taken and remaining restrictions are lifted on June 21st!

This is what they mean by "unsustainable pressure".
Read 9 tweets
11 Apr
Covid sceptics' latest cause is the banning of Denis Rancourt from @ResearchGate.

Everyone from @toadmeister to @ClareCraigPath and @profnfenton have tweeted support for him.

The problem is he's a racist crank with no expertise in viruses and a long history of writing nonsense.
His recent output on ResearchGate (which he was repeatedly warned about before the ban) includes articles claiming "vaccines are inherently dangerous" and that the surge in deaths last spring wasn't caused by covid but was "mass homicide by government response".
Before covid he was also a climate change denier.

A 2007 article claimed global warming was a "useful myth" that "deflects attention away from real world issues" such as "power-driven financiers, corporations and their cartels backed by military might".

activistteacher.blogspot.com/2007/02/global…
Read 12 tweets

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