Cute how the crypto community tries to spin that exchange shutdowns are the equivalent of circuit breakers in real markets.
How come USDT exchanges didn't need to shut down? USD markets were overheating, but USDT markets weren't? How can you have bids in USDT but not in USD?
Real cash exchanges are indeed circuit breakers, but not for when markets overheat - it's when people try to cash out for real money. That's when the stablecoin/exchange cartel can no longer manipulate prices. The liquidity pool of USD, unlike that of USDT, is very shallow.
As long as traders trust stablecoins are legit, the cartel can pump prices up by printing USDT out of thin air, sending it to exchanges, and buying up everything on offer. Arbitrageurs on real money exchanges see Bitcoin go up against USDT, and rush to buy it against USD as well.
As long as trust in USDT is airtight, there are no price spreads between exchanges, liquidity is infinite, and everybody's happy.
But when people stop trusting USDT, and ask for real money - that's when real price discovery starts, and the stablecoin/exchange cartel lose control.
So what do they do to regain control, like they did on May 19, during the crypto crash? Simple - forbid people to sell for USD. Shut down real money exchanges, so that the only prices that you can see come from USDT exchanges, where the price can be whatever they want.
Pump Bitcoin back up, then open the real money exchanges just a little bit, to see what people will do there - kind of an A/B test if you will. If flows look like they're reversing and people tend to buy with real money, then continue opening real money exchanges more and more.
Everyone who lamented that "people could not buy the dip because exchanges were closed" don't get that there wouldn't have been a dip if Coinbase hadn't shut down. Bitcoin would have gone to zero.
Those who understand, are shutting the hell up, and cashing out while they can.
The next time a crypto crash happens, there won't be a dip because real cash exchanges won't be able to reopen. The smart guys have learned their lesson. They're currently taking advantage of the "buy the dip" muppets to cash out what they can, while they can.
Caveat emptor.
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
Note about Tether's reserves from someone who knows this shit.
It could all be legit. There's no way knowing, because we don't know who the issuer of the commercial paper they're holding is. If it's IBM, that's as good as cash. If it's Binance, lol. Same goes for corporate bonds.
Same goes for "secures loans". Who is the recipient of these loans, and what are they secured by? If these are loans to FTX secured by crypto, again, lol.
Fiduciary deposits should in theory be legit, although it's weird; I guess it's it's a consequence of offshore banking.
One big issue that puts a big question mark on everything is what accounting policies were used? Stu mentions "our accounting policies" but there's no such thing. Either you're using standards like IFRS, or you're making stuff up.
And finally, what's the total value of the pie???
Monaco owes its VIP status to one man. Not Prince Charles III who built the casino, or Prince Rainier III who brought Hollywood fame by marrying Grace Kelly, or Prince Albert II.
Monaco owes it all to Camille Blanc, the casino operator who made the Monte Carlo casino profitable.
Before Camille accepted the job, the casino of Monte Carlo was a joke. Days would go by without a single gambler coming in. It was a money pit.
Camille changed it all. He only accepted the job after Monaco agreed to pay him 90% of the casino's profits. NINETY F***ING PERCENT.
Still, once Camille did his magic, the remaining 10% was such a bonanza that it was enough for the monégasque government to stop collecting taxes from its citizens - a status Monaco still enjoys today.
How did Camille turn a nameless casino lost in the Alps into such a wonder?
I know Tether and Bitcoin are hard to understand for people who haven't spent 10 years looking at fraud in the face. Here's a more down-to-earth explanation.
Imagine Bitcoin is houses in the desert. The promoter advertised the spot as the New New York, where all the hedge funds
and the banks and the really important people will want to be. A lot of people bought in, but the vision never became real - hedge funds and banks stayed in New York. Nonetheless, the price of the houses rose for some reason.
As the price rose, more people bought in, ignoring the
fact that the promoter's vision didn't materialise. Surely there are other reasons for why the price is going up, other very important corporations who will want to set camp there.
Seeing prices go up, the promoter built more houses. People snapped them up as well.
It looks like the majority of crypto is OK now with USDTs being backed by crypto and not something tangible.
The emerging consensus is "USDTs are so well collateralised after the bull run that there's zero risk. And, if Bitcoin falls, they can always print and pump it back up."
The minority of insiders see the writing on the wall, and are playing along while frantically trying to cash out behind the scenes (example: Coinbase).
But the majority actually believe this nonsense, and are confidently displaying their utter lack of understanding of finance.
The price of crypto today isn't priced in USD, it's priced in USDT, because nobody's trying to cash out into the real world. It 's true that USDTs are overcollateralised today.
However, if more than a few people try to cash out in USD, crypto will start being priced in USD.