Share this page!

John Pfaff Profile picture
Twitter logo
21 May, 6 tweets, 3 min read
I think it is really important to make sure we frame the geography here carefully.

Krasner didn’t survive. He won convincingly. And—this is my main point—did ESPECIALLY well where shootings were the HIGHEST.
Saw this in Queens, too: Cabán did well where violence was high.

I’m about to try to get an RA to gather the data for Chicago in 2016, 2020, Boston, StL, etc Bet the pattern holds: more support for progressives in higher-impact nbhds.
Now, things looks MUCH worse at the state level, where crime policy is far more symbolic some impacted communities have far lesser voice: theappeal.org/defund-the-pol…

But it is VITAL to emphasize WHO is opposing the reformers. It’s the LESS-impacted.
Likewise with Boudin. Homicides are at near-historic LOWS. Barely went up in 2020 (his first year). Opposition feels like it’s coming from rich tech-types. Their claims just don’t track the data.
I too fear a backlash. But need to make it always, ALWAYS clear that the backlash is not coming from those who are most affected, as well as that crime has been JUST as bad in non-progressive cities.
I apparently totally botched the threading here. Here’s the rest of the thread:

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
　

Keep Current with John Pfaff

John Pfaff Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @JohnFPfaff

John Pfaff Profile picture
20 May
Adding a new section to my crim class, and feel like this may be THE most under-appreciated fact abt the crim legal system: just HOW many cases drop out of it.

Half of crimes don't get reported. Half of THOSE don't get arrested. Maybe 5% of crimes --> prison in the end?
These are rough estimates, merging numbers from not-exactly-comparable datasets.

And yes, much of that data is old. It's the most up to date, but... yeah.

Still, even if off by a factor of 2 (weakest point is the arrest-to-prosecutor part)? There's a LOT of attrition.
The findings have ambiguous political implications.

Tough-on-crime types can look at it and say "man, imagine how much better still things could be if we shored this up."

My take? Non-crim legal system ... things ... are likely what constrain behavior the most.
Read 4 tweets
John Pfaff Profile picture
19 May
So, as someone who (1) wanted Krasner to win, obvs, yet (2) is finishing up something on what the homicide spike means for reform, I think this take on these sorts of pieces is a bit harsh.

They were raising valid questions--and ones last night didn't decisively answer.
I mean, the status quo IS pushing back. I say that not because I think it is somehow the natural order of things. I fight the status quo every day.

But it IS trying to capitalize on the homicide spike and Covid fears, and it is having some--some--successes.
NYC is about the flood the subway with cops, and the frontrunner for mayor is an ex-police captain who wants to bring back stop and frisk.

Philly reelected (yeah yeah) Krasner in a landslide, and Pittsburgh will have a progressive mayor.

It's complicated!
Read 9 tweets
John Pfaff Profile picture
19 May
One other, less optimistic, point about Krasner and the Philly police.

Krasner's decisive win points to the weakness of police unions at the LOCAL level. At the state level, seems like they have more sway.

And, at least in Red states, that's a concern: theappeal.org/defund-the-pol…
State officials can't preempt local elections. If cities elect progressive mayors and counties progressive DAs, a deep-red state lege can't change that

But they can (and are!) impose rules abt police funding, and they can (and are!) give state AGs more power over local cases.
PA is actually a good example of this. Even with a Dem governor, a chaotic end-of-session bill-passing spree allowed Philly's lone GOP state rep to slip in a provision giving the state AG the right to handle all gun cases... but just from Philly. A direct shot at Krasner.
Read 6 tweets
John Pfaff Profile picture
2 May
“Incarcerating one person in the state for one year costs about $60,000.”

This isn’t remotely how prison cost work, but of all the wrong takes on incarceration this is the one I most think simply cannot be changed.

thedailynewsonline.com/top_story/addi…
It’s like the “million dollar blocks” claim. Equally wrong for the same reason, but so intuitively appealing that I think it is basically invulnerable.

So we’ll cut prisons, and not see the savings, and not get why (happened to a program in IN that made EXACTLY this error).
In short: $60,000 is the AVERAGE cost.

But 2/3 of that cost, if not more, if wages. Then some is heating and cleaning and other fixed costs.

So release 1, or 10, or maybe even 1,000, and savings will be <<< $60,000 per. Maybe $10,000, maybe less.

Marginal <<< average.
Read 4 tweets
John Pfaff Profile picture
1 May
I think a lot of the negative attention this paper is getting is bc it is seen as undermining reforms. Which… it’s not!

To say that incarceration reduces some bad outcomes is NOT to say that it does so OPTIMALLY.

Think this points to a vulnerability in reform rhetoric:
A lot of anti-prison rhetoric starts at “prison has entirely negative effects.”

And it’s true that studies increasingly indicate that the effects are, on net, much weaker than proponents suggest.

But some ppl are imminently dangerous. Removing them likely has some gains.
But that does not mean prison is the EFFECTIVE way to do this. It doesn’t mean it’s the MORAL way to do this. None of this accounts for how we ignore the social costs of how we’ve done it.

But assuming these results replicate, they’re useful to have.
Read 4 tweets
John Pfaff Profile picture
29 Apr
These laws are never used as intended, and always metastasize to more-common actions. They are always written too broadly.

Like Salt Lake’s DA, who used a sloppily-written anti-gang law to thread two women w life sentences for… throwing paint. ImageImage
Already we see states and the Feds trying to figure out how to push protesting behavior into something far worse.

We are already arresting and charging the insurgents. We don’t need new laws to get them. ImageImage
“But what about investigations?”

It’s worth noting that the PATRIOT Act created a special “sneak and peek” warrant to target terrorism… which has been used almost entirely to go after routine drug cases.

Same thing will happen here. Image
Read 6 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!

Like this author's thread?

Get emails when @JohnFPfaff has new unrolls!

Check out other threads from @JohnFPfaff!

Read all threads by @JohnFPfaff

:(