What newspapers still won't scream about is when Earth system feedbacks like thawing permafrost are taken into account, emissions must be slashed to zero in the 2020s for any hope of a reasonable chance of staying below potentially totally catastrophic levels of global warming.
1.
Carbon 'budgets' for horrific 1.5-1.9°C of global warming are either tiny or non-existent according to climate scientists (nature.com/articles/s4324…) rven without the latest science on Arctic feedback loops being taken into account.
⬇️ eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2…
2.
'The tropics could become uninhabitable if we don’t limit global warming to less than 1.5°C.'
Above this, the equatorial region, which is home to around 43% of the world’s population, could see air temperatures increase beyond what humans can stand.
“Growing understanding of the Earth system suggests that peak heating beyond 1.5°C may be an existential threat to the biosphere and therefore also humanity". (preprint paper currently under review with the journal Environmental Research Letters) vice.com/en/article/qj8…
4.
'where Antarctica is very sensitive to climate change, we found there is a 5% chance of the land ice contribution to sea level rise exceeding 56 cm in 2100, even if we limit warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius'.
'Rapid international action is needed to limit global warming to 1.5˚C, which would allow more time for adaptation to rising sea levels.. We've witnessed a step-change that is unlikely to be reversible in the near future..' phys.org/news/2020-09-g…
7.
'climate change is not worsening in a simple, linear fashion, but rather by compounding and accelerating: “1.5 degrees.. risks setting up feedbacks that could fall like dangerous dominos, fundamentally destabilizing the planet.”
Scientists readily concede that we can't know what kind of global average temperature we'll hit due to uncertainties and unknowables. We need zero emissions asap - ie the 2020s - hoping that aerosols don't add huge warming when we stop burning coal...
Now add deforestation, plastic pollution, pesticides, and a range of other ecological crises..
For decent survival everything must change.
10.
The Guardian headline reads “Humanity has wiped out 60% of animal populations”, while the BBC runs with “Mass wildlife loss caused by human consumption”.
..
There is one word, however, that fails to make a single appearance: capitalism. theconversation.com/capitalism-is-…
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STOP PRESS: rumour has it scientists now concede carbon emissions must be slashed to near zero in the 2020s for any hope of a reasonable chance of staying below potentially totally catastrophic levels of global warming because of vicious methane feedbacks like thawing permafrost.
1/ It isn't reasonable to rely on luck, carbon-sucking technology that isn't feasible at scale, and/or highly dangerous geoengineering to stay below 1.5°C which may be enough warming to wreck the tropics and coastal cities within decades or even dice with the Earth's liveability.
2/ The carbon budgets in the IPCC SR15 report don't account for Earth systems feedbacks, so for a shaky 66% chance (assumptions?) of avoiding 1.5C, emissions must fall 92% by 2030 and hit zero by 2031, assuming we're not pinning all our hopes on negative emissions technologies.
The global economic system is waging a war on nature.
'And this is just what we already know about. Researchers say there are huge gaps in our knowledge of plants, and more work is needed to assess the conservation status of more species.'
Is the message from scientists "we need zero emissions by 2028 or so because of feedbacks and then climate change must be reversed somehow but geoengineering presents a danger to all life on Earth and carbon-sucking technology at scale is a fantasy"?
Love,
Ben
“If rapid emission reductions are initiated soon, it is still possible that at least a large fraction of required CO2 extraction can be achieved via relatively natural agricultural and forestry practices with other benefits,” the authors wrote.
“On the other hand, if large fossil fuel emissions are allowed to continue, the scale and cost of industrial CO2 extraction, occurring in conjunction with a deteriorating climate with growing economic effects, may become unmanageable."
'Germany's coal exit plan [by 2038] falls far short of environmental recommendations. According to estimates, the European Union needs to phase out coal by 2030 to meet the 1.5C target of the Paris Agreement'
1. The tropics contain over 75% of all Earth's species
2. Scientists expect 1.5°C of global warming by 2030
3. Deforestation, mining, road building & pesticides also threaten the tropics
It will never be too late to try to limit the damage & protect everybody.
How many people now strongly suspect capitalism is a threat not just to organised human society but to all species?
Scientists expect 1.5°C by 2026-2032, but with emergency, climate justice, degrowth, economic-system-change action it could yet be delayed.newscientist.com/article/227035…
'The tropics contain.. more than three-quarters of all species.. actions are urgently required to prevent a collapse of tropical biodiversity'.
Did you know the tropics seem set to start becoming uninhabitable from as early as 2026 with the majority of Earth's species facing a struggle for survival in extreme conditions as ecosystems collapse due to habitat destruction & climate change during capitalism? Rise up now, etc
'The tropics could become uninhabitable if we don’t limit global warming to less than 1.5°C'.
Scientists expect 1.5°C to hit by 2026-2032, but with emergency, climate justice, degrowth, economic system change action it could yet be delayed. Organise now.
The tropics contain the majority of Earth’s biodiversity: their terrestrial, freshwater and marine ecosystems hold >75% of all species. Concerted local, national and international actions are urgently required to prevent a collapse of tropical biodiversity.nature.com/articles/s4158…