Thread by @Stats_D0nt_Lie

Ahead of #FPL GW38, I thought I'd compile some historical data from the final GW of the season for you fine lot. All the data is taken from the last 10 seasons.

(For the purpose of word limits, avg = average)

1) GW38 has averaged 3.3 goals per game, which is higher than the season average for each of the last 10 seasons.

2) There have been 21 games featuring already relegated sides in that time. Relegated Sides have 4W, 2D and 15L in these 21 games

3) These 21 games have averaged 3.7 goals, with relegated sides conceding 2.6 goals/game on average

4) There have been just 43 CS in the 100 GW38 games, with an average of 4.3 CS per GW38, giving a CS success rate of 21.5%. Hits or defensive transfers look unlikely to pay off.

5) However, if you really do need that defensive differential, then out of the 22 teams to play a relegated side (one game involved 2 relegated teams) There have been 8 CS, a success rate of 36.4%. Most CS were wiped out by a solitary goal, with relegated sides avging 1.1g/game

6) In 7 out 10 seasons, there has been at least one game with 6+ goals, and on average there are 4.2 games with 4+ goals in GW38.

7) An avg of 4.6 teams score 3+ goals in GW38 each season.

8) 4.6 is the avg highest goals scored by a Home team in GW38 and 3.5 for Away teams

In summary:

-avoid defensive transfers where possible
-target home teams (especially as they'll have the added incentive of fans)
-Worth backing against the relegated sides
-Leeds game screams pts!