(Nervously starts typing what’s going to be an unpopular thread)

India, South Africa and allies have now circulated a new draft for the WTO intellectual property waiver for COVID-19.

KEI Online has it. Not yet in WTO DocsOnline—Monday?

1/19 #TRIPSwaiver keionline.org/wp-content/upl…
“It’s been a long time comin’
It’s goin’ to be a long time gone

“And it appears to be a long
Appears to be a long
Appears to be a long time
Yes, a long, long, long, long time before the dawn”

So long to prepare, so little changed, lots to do

2/19
It’s hard to believe this draft was intended to enable quick agreement to waive obligations under the WTO intellectual property (“TRIPS”) agreement

It’s extreme—a blank cheque with some minor tweaks—not a draft than can be quickly settled.

3/19 keionline.org/wp-content/upl…
It’s easy to fix on slogans without thinking.

Too many people assume the waiver will allow a surge in COVID-19 vaccines worldwide. @EmilyThornberry and @UKLabour are among them.

Vaccines are not easy to copy. A waiver might have no impact.

4/19 theguardian.com/commentisfree/…
What about the draft itself?

1. PREAMBLE: context, listed events, and the conclusion that a waiver is justified—although no actual link is made, such as intellectual property being an obstacle. Lip service on preserving incentives.

5/19 #TRIPSwaiver keionline.org/wp-content/upl…
2. COVERAGE: types of intellectual property (unchanged), and a more detailed list of products.

The cited sections: 1 = copyright, 4 = industrial designs, 5 = patents, 7 = trade secrets. Part 3 = enforcement.

We can expect negotiations on this

6/19 keionline.org/wp-content/upl…
And products?

So far, the US has only mentioned vaccines—none of the other products.

New Zealand has also only said vaccines.

We don’t know yet what their position is on other products.

I’d expect some haggling over this

7/19 #TRIPSwaiver ustr.gov/node/10649
3. DURATION: At least 3 years. General Council decides on end-date.

Normally requires consensus agreement ➡️ if one country objects, the waiver will continue.

Or put it to a vote?

This has ZERO chance of being accepted. Why propose it?

8/19 keionline.org/wp-content/upl…
4. NETFLIX AND SPOTIFY NOT COVERED: Paragraph 3 excludes recordings and broadcasts. Copyright protection on them would continue

Uncontroversial, I think

9/19 #TRIPSwaiver keionline.org/wp-content/upl…
5. LEAST-DEVELOPED COUNTRIES: Their exemption from having to protect intellectual property rights is unaffected

6. REVIEW by the General Council: standard practice.

Both uncontroversial

10/19 #TRIPSwaiver keionline.org/wp-content/upl…
7. NO LEGAL CHALLENGE via WTO dispute settlement, including “non-violation” cases—an expected right is lost because of a country’s actions, even when no agreement is violated.

But how is “conformity” established if no legal challenge is allowed?

11/19 keionline.org/wp-content/upl…
I can’t see that last point being accepted by other WTO members.
______

So much for the draft. Is that it?

That’s what’s IN the draft. Also important: what’s NOT in the draft

12/19 #TRIPSwaiver keionline.org/wp-content/upl…
What’s not in the draft waiver? Terms and conditions

1. CONDITIONS: Other WTO members may want some constraints on applying the waiver—for example to prevent products made under the waiver from being exported to countries that do not use the waiver

13/19 #TRIPSwaiver
A previous waiver contained just such a provision. It required different packaging for easier detection and other methods. India has called this “onerous and time-consuming”

I think we can expect more haggling over this

14/19 #TRIPSwaiver pmindiaun.gov.in/public_files/a…
2. TRANSPARENCY: Will actions taken under the waiver have to be notified? This might sound like unnecessary red-tape but it is a fundamental principle of the WTO—legal reference: GATT Art10, GATS Art3, TRIPS Art63.2)

It’s happened before

15/19 wto.org/english/tratop…
This is another part of what India called “onerous and time consuming” conditions.

It’s quite possible that there will be lengthy haggling over this too.

16/19 #TRIPSwaiver pmindiaun.gov.in/public_files/a…
In any case, some notification will be needed—intellectual property agreement Art63.2.

Countries’ laws (except least-developed) comply with the agreement. To use the waiver, they must amend their laws and regulations. That must be notified.

17/19 wto.org/english/docs_e…
The best we can hope for is that the US & co produce counter proposals and all members negotiate constructively and receptively.

Past experience suggests that won’t happen. But as some people keep telling us “there’s always a first time”

18/19
The important point:

This is not just “yes/no” to the waiver or the latest draft

It’s about what the waiver contains, and that will take a long time to sort out—if it can be sorted out at all.

Even then, the impact on vaccines is unclear.

19/19

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More from @CoppetainPU

Jun 9, 2022
🧵 On Sunday, the much-postponed 12th WTO Ministerial Conference #MC12 starts.

Here is another curtain-raiser, with @BobWolfeSPS

@wto Director-General @NOIweala believes it will be a success.

But what does “success” mean?

1/11 tradebetablog.wordpress.com/2022/06/09/tou…
“Many gaps remain but we are making progress,” @NOIweala told members on Tuesday Jun 7

“The success of this whole endeavour is in our hands. Let us deliver. The people outside are waiting for us and, believe it or not, I really think we will do it.”

2/11 wto.org/english/news_e…
Fingers crossed, there might even be a deal on fisheries subsidies, she and the talks’ chair @WillsSantiago said.

But despite “cautious optimism” WTO spokesperson Dan Pruzin warned journalists to expect ministers to meet late into the night at #MC12

3/11 tradebetablog.wordpress.com/2022/06/09/tou…
Read 12 tweets
May 29, 2022
Was it worth the time looking at the UK’s big deal with Indiana? The one the government hails as a “milestone” and the minister calls a “US trade deal”?

They wants us to take it seriously. So I did. Let’s say I did it so you don’t have to.

1/8 tradebetablog.wordpress.com/2022/05/29/mil…
TL:DR it's not a trade agreement.

It's a memorandum of understanding, a non-binding statement of intent.

The only trade barrier that might get tackled is govt procurement.

Indiana's state-level entities have no commitments on procurement in the WTO

2/8 tradebetablog.wordpress.com/2022/05/29/mil…
Indiana “will actively work towards” (not a commitment) treating UK suppliers the same as suppliers from other US states except those neighbouring Indiana.

“That’s the weirdest MFN clause I’ve ever seen,”—@Lorand_Bartels

3/8 tradebetablog.wordpress.com/2022/05/29/mil…
Read 10 tweets
May 27, 2022
“Agreement with Indiana marks milestone in UK’s trade with the US”—the UK government proclaims

Read on

It's a memorandum of understanding on what the UK and Indiana want to develop in their trade and economic relations. That stretches the meaning of “agreement” quite a lot

1/9
Good question⬇️. Short answer: no

So, all we know is what the UK government press release says.

2/9
This is what it says:

“The MoU creates a framework to remove barriers to trade and investment, paving the way for UK and Indianan businesses to invest, export, expand and create jobs.”

Remember: all major trade barriers are handled in Washington

3/9 gov.uk/government/new…
Read 10 tweets
May 22, 2022
It’s been clear for some time that WTO members are unlikely to agree on anything substantial on agriculture—despite declaring it a priority—when their ministers meet in Geneva Jun 12–15

Information from trade sources on a meeting last Thu May 19 reinforce that assessment🧵

1/11
The focus has changed in recent months—the Ukraine war has increased concerns about food security.

But the best binding decision that can be expected is to exempt the World Food Programme’s humanitarian purchases from export restrictions—still opposed by India & Tanzania.

2/11
Expect some non-binding/“best-endeavour” statement on food security, eg, the UK-led proposal⬇️, which draws on familiar themes of keeping supplies flowing, increasing transparency, minimising market disruption.

Even transparency is a problem…

3/11 docs.wto.org/dol2fe/Pages/S…
Read 11 tweets
May 20, 2022
Another day, another WTO topic where members find themselves under pressure to reach agreement within days.

Today: fisheries subsidies, at the end of a “Fish Week” of talks in various formats on curbing harmful subsidies that encourage overfishing.

1/8 tradebetablog.wordpress.com/wto-fish-talks…
Chair @WillsSantiago briefed the media after a stock-taking meeting of the membership.

Sandwiched between plenaries Mon and Fri, were sessions in various formats. Wills said 30-40 delegations were involved in each of those sessions, total about 50.

2/8 tradebetablog.wordpress.com/wto-fish-talks…
@WillsSantiago said the talks were constructive with good signals that need to be turned into agreement.

He announced a “Fish Decision” week from May 30, giving members a fortnight to resolve their differences.

3/8 tradebetablog.wordpress.com/wto-fish-talks…
Read 8 tweets
May 19, 2022
WTO members on all sides were urged today to sort out their reservations over the proposed compromise, so that a deal on waiving some intellectual property protection for COVID-19 can be struck by the Jun 12-15 Ministerial Conference, trade sources say.

1/14 #TRIPSwaiver
In an informal meeting of the WTO intellectual property (TRIPS) council, Director-General @NOIweala said WTO members have no option but to produce a result for the #MC12 Ministerial Conference, even if that means negotiating round the clock, the sources said.

2/14
Today's meeting was held to take stock of the first two days of real negotiations on the compromise text⬇️, on Mon&Wed, May 16&18. During those sessions, @NOIweala urged delegates to be prepared to compromise: "the perfect is the enemy of the good"

3/14 tradebetablog.wordpress.com/text-g4-trips-…
Read 15 tweets

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