A brief history of #BTC crashes. As a #BTC HODLer, I've been mockingly asked the ques of - how is your portfolio doing several times in the past during BTC crashes. What is happening this month is no diff 4m several other instances in the past. 🧵 on 2 such past events: 1/n
#BTC went from sub $100 to making a top at $1163 in Oct'13. Over the next 14 months it retraced and fell around 87% to make a bottom at $152.4 in Jan'15. I did not have any long term exposure during this period.  BTC at $250-350 was considered "EXPENSIVE" for a long period. 2/n
Over the next 3 years it went to a high of $19666 in Dec'17. A 129x increase in price from the bottom and 17x from previous top. Previous "Crash" was a blip on chart and $250-$350 entrants were considered lucky now. 3/n
From the Dec'17 top of 19666, BTC corrected to $3122 by Dec'18 - A fall of 84% over a period of 12 months. BTC at $8000 was considered "EXPENSIVE" for a long period since then.
From Dec'18 low of $3122 to recent high of $64895 in Apr'21 has been a 20x increase from the bottom price and a little over 3x from the previous top. The current drop is roughly at 50% of recent top and I wouldn't be surprised if it falls another 20-30% from here. 5/n
While the mockers have made fun of the asset class, #BTC adoption by institutions has only grown steadily over the years. Never invest anything that you can't afford to lose in this. Embrace the volatility if you intend to Hold this. -- END

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More from @Ankit_Quant

22 May
Weekend learning session with @alok_dharia and @VohiCapital. Muchas Gracias 🙏
Had an opportunity to discuss a wide range of topics from vol trading to global macro. Learnt handful of new things and got reinforced on some others.
A brief summary of our discussion: 1/n
1. All of their and our systems are automated. It is not only important to get confidence on our edge via backtesting, but also opens up possibilities to explore more opportunities as current algos/models trade Live.
2. Volatility Trading has more to do with understanding the dynamics of volatility itself, rather than rampant/random volatility selling. While later may work in high vol environments such as 2020, to get long term performance, spend time on modeling/understanding vol features
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