This whole thread fr @cmMcConnaughy is essential, re: pitfalls to avoid in analyzing protests+politics. & this pt👇 is esp. relevant as we reach the painful milestone of one year since the murder of George Floyd, & a flood of one-year-on assessments of the protest wave begins
When I am reconstructing the past in my day job as a historian, I don't expect either the underlying drivers, or the periodization of significant socio-political shifts to be visible to the people living out & furthering those changes. Societal change just doesn't work that way
Often the shifts that most rapidly come to seem unremarkable—because they are overdetermined, reinforced by multiple converging dynamics at once—are most important.
Just because developments feel predictable doesn't mean they were predictable. This future was not always priced in
In short: we are all very poor historians of our own lives. So I invite you to join me traveling back in a time machine to May 2017, via @RyanDeto's excellent write-up
[my apologies to non Pgh readers, who won't get the full vertigo-inducing experience] pghcitypaper.com/Blogh/archives…
I mean, I follow this closely & live in his district & even *I* had forgotten that in 2017 the city's sole judicial reform candidate—a single magisterial judge candidate—had not managed to get onto the primary ballot in advance, & only did so via an election-day write-in campaign
Fast forward to 2021 when (in the midst of a pandemic) a coalition was able to gather *67,000* signatures to get 2 criminal justice reforms on ballot: & the coalition that came together for final GOTV canvass looked like this👇
To say nothing of the individual judicial campaigns!
Ah! Correcting detail above. Magisterial district challenger chose to compete as independnt, via signature-gathering on later timeline than main party, not via e-day write-in [yes debate & correction is a healthy part of historical research process😅🙏]
The crucial takeaway ofc is not "that 2017 campaign was so hapless" but also not just "times have miraculously changed". That race was *part of* the change. That campaign navigated a constrained landscape of political possibility: & left a slightly altered landscape in its wake
Similarly the story of this week's three successful challengers in Beaver Falls...
... rests in part in @KolbeForPA10 's unsuccessful 2020 state house race—& the ways she & allies then chose to apply the organizational muscle & savvy they had gained to help remake the local terrain of political possibility.
And in turn Cole's campaign... timesonline.com/story/news/202…
... on the one hand would not have existed as it did without the learning & connections generated by the state house campaign of Darcelle Slapppy 2 ys before👇
& yes Cole's campaign was also deeply marked by the unprecedented youth-led protests that brought hundreds in Beaver Falls to march against racism, nearly 1 yr ago now. Something no one would have predicted: until the moment it was happening, everywhere
Sum: as of May 2017 politics here—as seen thru the lens of primary races/results—looked to have been zero % impacted by Trump's election, Women's March etc. 31 of 35 canddates endorsed by local Dem mx won. Only half had faced challengers. Business as usual pghcitypaper.com/Blogh/archives…
But in fact the shifted dynamics (new engagemnt, orgs, connections) that wld evolve into a bottom-up, sometimes-conflictive rebuilding of the organizational Dem party here as elsewhere👇were well underway in spring'17. Meetings..conversations..frustrations democracyjournal.org/arguments/midd…
& here we are, only 4 ys after that & only 1 yr after the solidarity/racial justice protests that followed the murder of George Floyd. W/a local political-organizational landscape—& judiciary—visibly transformed. In ways that will bring more change ahead pghcitypaper.com/pittsburgh/cri…
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The underlying piece here imho is a shift of political weight away from the unions that represent people who build hospitals, towards the unions that (seek to) represent people who labor in them
Health/service sector unions, w/their diverse member base & breadth of priorities that follow, are far better positioned to lead & benefit from coalitions w/the range of groups & actors newly mobilizing around racial disparities, police accountability, & more.
Also: this👇
The developers-trades-professional/managerial class alliance that's been the modal version of Democratc urban power sharing for ~30 ys had few incentives to support political *or* workplace organizing that would empower low-wage workers. That's been costly
Ok I know I tweet so much that, like monkeys w/typewriters, I'm bound to be prescient occasionally but: I will say this thread holds up pretty well 3 ys later
I haven't seen this previously: Greene County GOP is urging No vote on PA Ballot Question 3, claiming (inaccurately) that it seeks to give new rights to "illegal aliens". Is this framing being heard elsewhere in the state? facebook.com/GreeneCoGOP/
For more info on this ballot question see 👇 from @SpotlightPA . @sarahanne_news you wrote that you could not identify any opponents to adding anti-discrimination protections to the PA constitution... I think we just found some opponents for you?
Re-posting bc I just read yet another piece in whch a green-circle insider assures green-circle readers that the reason former Dems in purple circle don't vote for green-circle leaders is those pesky kids in the pink going on about trans rights & truly my head is going to explode
Like the twin decline of the Dem Party+labor movmnt as organizational presences in rural+rustbelt America; the Dem-side failure to compete as RW model honed in talk radio moved into natl then local news: these happened on someone's watch right? & those someones are older than 25?
The lack of meaningful bridges between green & purple—channels that would cultivate & amplify voices of party members from beyond cosmopolitan metros, & give Dems trusted interlocutors to do last-mile comms into a wider breadth of communities—is real & damaging.
Own that.
The Big Lie is still in place because the trusted communication infrastructure that supported & cemented the Big Lie is still in place. If your plans/advice to Dems re future elections aren't grappling w/this ongoing reality, *you're* the one living in a fantasy version of the US
As a Cardcarrying Historian™ I've been thinking a lot about what sources future historians will have to work with in reconstructing this moment: & am struck by how radically different your understanding of just what happened in 2020—& what people thought about—will be, depending