The bottom line is pretty depressing - we've spent months arguing back and forth, meanwhile this paper has had a HUGE impact and probably impacted policy decisions across the world
Thing is, our debate about this article has been FAST by academic standards
Three letters/responses for a single article published in 6 months? Snappy by many standards
And yet, it was still not even close to being quick enough to address any questions with the conclusions before the paper was used by real people to make real life-or-death decisions
That's pretty frightening
Academic debate was simply not designed to look at issues in the timeline of a pandemic. 6 months is a lifetime during COVID-19
Forget this paper and this argument. There have been dozens of similar examples, some where the papers were eventually retracted
They still took FAR too long
I honestly don't have a good solution other than completely reimagining scientific publishing somehow, but it is still quite a sad thing to watch academic discussion fail so completely to inform in a timely manner
The other issue is with attention. The initial published article has an Altmetric score of 19,000 (!). Our letter in response is 206, their response to that is 409, and our newest letter only 9
This is also the landing page of the original article. No evidence here at all that there is the slightest debate about the study or its conclusions
It's fair to say that 99%+ of people who have read the study probably assume that there is no scientific issue with it, even though there are several letters pointing out problems ~published in the same journal~
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3/n For reference, if you've forgotten, the original article basically argued that "more" restrictive non-pharmaceutical interventions (mrNPIs) such as lockdowns didn't work to prevent COVID-19 cases
It is MASSIVELY popular, with an Altmetric of 19k and dozens of citations
There is now some reasonably strong evidence that non-pharmaceutical interventions against COVID-19 ("lockdowns") were associated with decreased short-term suicides in several locations in the world
In a number of other places, while not associated with a decrease, they were also not associated with an increase either. In fact, best evidence suggests no link between lockdowns and an increased short-term suicide rate
One of the most bizarre things is that whenever you point out the fact that suicide rates have not generally increased during lockdowns or indeed the pandemic, people get very angry at you
Personally, I think it's quite a good thing that there have been fewer suicides
We often discuss academic "silencing" as a sort of nasty attack on people's credentials, but rarely does that include police detectives investigating people for publishing scientific articles 👀👀👀
And while I have absolutely no expertise in paediatric forensics, I've read Dr. Brook's piece which while retracted is still available as a preprint, and it does not seem like a wild and unscientific document researchgate.net/profile/C-Broo…
2/n The article reports a survey that was run by @smh and @theage talking to adults about whether they were "likely" to be vaccinated "in the months ahead"
3/n According to the article, with nearly a third responding that they were unlikely to be vaccinated, there is a serious reason for concern representing an "alarming level of vaccine hesitancy"
Graduate students are the backbone of all scientific endeavours, and often do amazing work without which we would all be lost
Perhaps more importantly, it is fundamentally unscientific to argue that someone's publication record makes any difference to the truth of their arguments