In the US, we're rapidly building immunity thanks to highly effective vaccines. Cases have been quickly dropping. What might we expect in the coming months?
A few tweets on how I think about our patchwork of outbreaks... 1/6
A few tweets on how I think about our patchwork of outbreaks... 1/6
Immunity will not be spread evenly throughout the population. While we track vaccination coverage at the national or state level, infectious disease dynamics are inherently local. Pockets of unvaccinated people who have not previously been infected will exist. 2/6
These pockets with lower immunity will remain at risk for outbreaks. While populations with high immunity may no longer be at risk for large outbreaks, movement between areas (and from across the globe) will lead to regular re-introductions and onward cases. 3/6
The scale of the pandemic in the US thus changes, from when everywhere on the map was a fiery red, to smaller outbreaks. A case-based response (e.g. contact tracing, targeted antibody therapy) becomes more feasible to react to re-introductions. 4/6
Two more comments. First, the level of immunity needed during the spring/summer/fall may be different from that needed during the winter. Or for new variants. While low incidence indicates current success, we want to afford ourselves as much wiggle room as possible. 5/6
Second, while the US is breathing a sigh of relief, the rest of the world is experiencing a very different pandemic. We have an ethical imperative to further assist other countries by increasing contributions to #COVAX. This will help keep us all safer. 6/6
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