OK, those ructions, alarms and excursions at Andover and Main Building over AFVs. This will sound like one of those soap opera summations of where we are with the drama that is Warrior CSP/Ajax Scout... @nicholadrummond @grantturnbull_ @JonHawkes275 @bealejonathan @larisamlbrown
Having had WR CSP cancelled sine die, LM looks as if it is moving to do what had been threatened last year: closing Ampthill on the grounds that it is now uneconomic to operate. Plot twist: where are Ajax turrets built? Oh, Ampthill.
So, if Ampthill were to shut its doors, that's Ajax turret line gone, and the programme de facto cancelled. So, what can the MoD do? Well, it could find a willing bidder to buy it off LM (they tried to get GD to do it, but no dice), and keep it open;
MoD could provide guarantees to a bidder about work and workforce (again, reports say that even with these, GD were "thanks, but no thanks") Or, MoD could buy Ampthill, and then with all the guarantees, find someone to operate it as Govt-owned, contractor operated.
But at what cost any of these deals? And what would this do to Ajax costs? I have heard that to a) get the turret actually working, as well as amortising Ampthill purchase would add £1-2m per turreted vehicle, £250-500m all-in-all. New Programme Cost: £5.8bn.
And what of the hull vibration, which has health effects on crew, as well as reportedly shaking the electronics to bits? The chassis needs to be re-engineered with strengtheners to stop vibration.
PS, the vibration problem started when to reduce kerb weight, GD was asked to lose a few t, and so altered the chassis. So, this will be reversed, and several t of weight will be added: what price a 45t+ AFV?
Cost of re-engineering Ajax chassis? Possibly pick a number, add several 00s, double it, and add you original number. Talk is of minimum of £1m per vehicle, if you're lucky, wiser heads say £1.5-2m, so that'd be £600-1,200m. New Programme Cost: £6.4-7bn.
And if the chasses have to be heavily re-engineered, can existing chasses (130+ already manufactured) be used? Or will new ones have to be built? At what cost?
And what happens to the delivery of Ajax with a form of industrial dislocation if the nature of Ampthill changes? It is unlikely that whosoever takes it over in the event of LM walking away, will do so w/o due diligence.
Certainly add months, and that ignores the time for any extra work to get the vehicle actually working. The Cabinet Office Infra and Major Projects Report says Armoured Cavalry capability by 2025-6. Probably safe to say that these dates will now be missed.
BTW, MoD no longer using 30 June 2021 IOC date in press enquiries - just giving no date at all. Silence is deafening... If there is confidence about the progress of Ajax, then apart from saying, "we are committed", why no delivery dates and milestones?
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