Thread by @JonahLupton

I think everyone on Twitter knows that I love @CelsiusOfficial the product and $CELH the stock so I'm talking my book here but figured I would share some data that I'm seeing.

I've been running numbers for $CELH and I’m getting even more bullish…

Nielsen scan data for $CELH in Q1 was around 100% YoY and that’s exactly what they reported for US operations (101% YoY).

Nielsen data for April (Q2) was 200% YoY growth so we could be looking at an epic blowout report in August because analyst estimates are still just $53M.

$53M in Q2 would be 76.7% YoY growth from 2020 Q2

If $CELH did 200% YoY for US operations (I’m expecting +180% for Q2 in US) and US was 78% of total revs in 2021 Q1 then we could be looking at 140-150% YoY for $CELH — this is not priced into $CELH

I'm assuming the scan data will slow to 180% in May and 160% for June giving a Q2 average of 180% (however with more stores stocking $CELH plus 180+ DSD partners plus warmer months and the economy reopening I'm not sure we're going to see any tail-off in scan data)

I'm also assuming international only does 40% YoY (they did 25% YoY in Q1).

I'm also assuming that US becomes a bigger % of the total revenues, if it was 78% in Q1 then it should be 80-85% in Q2 with the numbers I'm discussing above.

In full disclosure, all of these numbers are based on my own numbers, I'm simply sharing what I'm seeing and thinking.

Right now the Q2 estimates are $53M, I'm not even sure where the stock would go if they reported $70M+ which would also be 40% QoQ growth.

The biggest risk to $CELH right now is the aluminum can shortage, I know many beverage companies are dealing with this and it's a legit problem that could cause slowdowns in the supply chain so I'm watching it closely.

If $CELH can work through the can shortages then I'm convinced we have a strong path to $100+ over the next 6-12 months.