Thread by @ChadPergram

1) The Hitchhiker’s Guide to Where Infrastructure Stands the Future of the Filibuster

2)There is a lot of chatter about Democrats being forced to go it alone to finish the work on a potential infrastructure bill. Republicans and Democrats appear far apart after bipartisan negotiations seemed to have stumbled.

3) So some Democrats are pressuring Democratic leaders to drop the bipartisanship dalliance and move the bill on their own.

4) Here's the problem: Democrats don’t yet have the votes to pass a bill in the Senate on their own, even sidestepping a filibuster and moving a package via special budget rules called “reconciliation.”

5) White House spokeswoman Jen Psaki may say that the ball is in the court of Republicans. But, it may be in the court of Democrats.

For now.

6) This is why the effort to work with Republicans may not be dead. If Democrats can assemble a bill in which all 50 Senate Democrats and House Democrats agree, they can move a bill on their own. Otherwise, they are stuck relying on Republicans or, dragging out this process

7) And Democrats may have to further reduce the overall price tag of the infrastructure bill to court all Democrats. That could inflame the left.

This may take a while to sort out. Maybe weeks or months.

8) That said, both President Biden and GOP senators had to go through a bit of a dance just to get to this stage.

9) There are too many of these types of negotiations which have worked out down the road after there are offers, counter offers, responses, other offers, talks falling silent, resurrected, to believe that everything is completely dead on this score.

10) It would be a different beast if Democrats had the votes ready to go on their side. They don’t. Yet. That will take some massaging. But until Democrats get their act together, teaming with Republicans on some sort of a smaller infrastructure bill may be the only route.

11) This is why debate about nuking the filibuster is moot on this score right now.

That said, the Senate lacks the votes yet to move some other bills which have come over from the House.

12) The fate of the $1.9 supplemental security bill hangs in the balance. It will need to clear the 60 vote threshold twice to overcome a filibuster. The same with the bill to establish a bipartisan commission to probe the January riot.

13) That legislation is also subject to two rounds of 60 votes. The bill doesn’t appear to have 60 votes there, either. Timing is unclear and the procedural votes on these may come sometime in June. But if they lack 60 votes, these bills are dead in the water.

14) Keep in mind that you need a FAILED procedural vote to end a filibuster to implement the nuclear option. It’s possible the Senate could start to tee up several of those on a host of issues in the coming weeks.

15) Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) has said he’s adamantly opposed to eliminating the filibuster.

16) But, Democrats privately tell Fox that lining up a bunch of failed procedural votes – thus stunting the Senate from doing work – could start to apply pressure on Manchin and others who oppose changing filibuster provisions.

17) It's unlikely that a senator may be willing to end the filibuster over, say, DC statehood. But it may be another matter for a senator to be willing to forever ditch the filibuster via the nuclear option on a bill to establish a commission to investigate the Capitol riot.

18) Also note that the Senate could have trouble with a filibuster on the research and technology bill on the Senate floor this week

So, nothing is quite set on infrastructure yet. And it may not be dead.

19) And, keep a watch on bills which may face filibusters in the Senate over the coming weeks. That could ripen an opportunity for Democrats down the road to attempt to alter the filibuster.