Thread by @ChrisCEOHopson

1/11 Just done @TimesRadio interview this morning on current state of play in trusts particularly affected by variant that originated in India. Member feedback suggests the following. Hospitalisations increasing steadily but not precipitately. The next week or so will be key.

2/11 Early signs that the rate of community infections is beginning to peak in some places. Example of increases / estimates of hospitalisations from one hospital: 20 last week, 40 this week, predicted 60 next week and this hopefully being peak, assuming infection peak reached.

3/11 But trust CEOs are clear that modelling of future hospitalisations feels very uncertain given number of variables and unreliability of modelling in previous waves. They want to see what happens over the next seven days which they are describing as "the crucial week".

4/11 The average district general hospital bed base = circa 400-500. So trust leaders saying that having 60 out of 400 beds occupied by Covid-19 patients - 15% - is very different to the 50% / 60% Covid-19 patient bed occupancy rates we were seeing at the start of this year.

5/11 CEOs struck how, as expected, hospitalisations are very much focused on unvaccinated – either eligible unvaccinated or younger people not yet vaccinated. Very small numbers of two dose vaccinated patients and hospitalisations in this category have clear co-morbidities.

6/11 Trust CEOs saying they can see difference in protection levels between single and double doses. If so, vindication of JCVI's decision to bring forward the second dose timing from 12 to 8 weeks and stresses importance of all eligible getting vaccinated as soon as possible.

7/11 Trust leaders saying that the proportion of hospitalisations requiring critical care is significantly lower than previous waves. They're linking this to much lower age range of hospital patients compared to previous waves e.g. in one trust c70% are under 45.

8/11 Trust leaders also re-doubling their efforts around preventing hospital acquired infection given the seeming 30-50% greater transmissibility rate of this variant. And, obviously, doing all they can to assist with wider community effort to rapidly increase vaccination rates…

9/11 …with particular emphasis on identifying and vaccinating those eligible who have not yet been vaccinated. Trusts are also working hard to be ready for any increase in hospitalisations should it arrive. As well as promptly completing numerous information requests (!)

10/11 Trust CEOs looking for much better quality of national public health advice communications in affected areas e.g. around local lockdowns. "People can't follow advice if they don't know it exists. And any approach needs to be agreed with the relevant local authorities".

11/11 CEOs relieved that they are seeing very few, if any, care home residents with covid-19. They’re also very grateful, as ever, for staff flexibility and work to deal with those cases who are arriving. In summary, manageable so far but next seven days will be key.