Ire across the political spectrum at the Guardian Council disqualifications of several Iranian presidential candidates, @amwajmedia reports: “an uncontested win by Raisi in the elections may discredit him and even damage his leadership ambitions.” amwaj.media/media-monitor/…
“This level of dissatisfaction among hardliners with the Guardian Council is unprecedented & indicates that pressure on the political establishment is growing. Hardliners are worried that an election in which there is no competition will lead to a low turnout that will be blamed
“on them and the wider establishment, and place the rival Reformist camp on the high ground.
The discontent in the wider social base from where the hardliners get their support could force Khamenei to issue a decree for the GC to approve Larijani & possibly also Jahangiri
“in the coming days. Campaigning is not set to begin until May 28. ...However, Hossein Shariatmadari, influential chief editor of the hardline Kayhan daily, has rejected this possibility.” amwaj.media/media-monitor/…
see also this election primer, which notes “The US withdrawal from the 2015 Iran nuclear deal...empowered conservative political forces who have been rejecting engagement with the west all along.” amwaj.media/article/iran-e…
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🧵”The way they did their work was suspicious as hell," said one former State Dept official familiar with effort. "They basically conducted it in secret, cutting out the State Dept’s technical experts & the Intel Community, & then trying to brief certain senior officials
“the interagency on their 'tentative conclusions' even before they'd let the department leaders they worked for know an investigation was underway at all."
When scientists looked at the data,... in early Jan, the evidence... appeared inconclusive and misguided, two sources said.
“It smelled like they were just fishing to justify pre-determined conclusions & cut out experts who could critique their 'science,' " said the fmr official...”The reason..became clear when real scientists finally got a chance to see their analysis,” & the case fell apart.
“There was more progress towards reaching an understanding of what the contours of a deal would look like,” the diplomat said.
But he said reaching a deal is not inevitable. And the timing is also uncertain. Unclear if Iran elections will get in the way.
“We have made tangible progress…Both on the nuclear side and the sanctions side, we are now beginning to see the contours of what the final deal could look like,” E3 diplomats.
🧵Blinken call w UAE FM. From State readout: “The Secretary and Foreign Minister discussed efforts to bring the current violence in Israel and the West Bank and Gaza to an end and halt the tragic loss of civilian life.”
Blinken call w EU High Rep Borrell: “to exchange views on how the United States and the EU can bring a halt to the current violence between Israelis and Palestinians.”
Blinken call w Jordan FM. State: “Both agreed on the urgency of working towards a sustainable calm.”
Nov. 9, the day Axios reports that McEntee summoned Macgregor to the WH & handed him a note instructing him Trump wanted him to find a way to withdraw troops from Syria/Iraq/Germany/Afghanistan/Africa, is the same day Esper was fired and Miller stuffed in. axios.com/off-the-rails-…
It really seems that there needs to be proper depositions, of Miller, mcentee, macgregor, patel, o’brien, etc. etc. etc. Is there a connection between Trump post-election machinations at DoD, the firing of Esper, and Jan. 6? axios.com/off-the-rails-…
So Miller evidently did not consider Macgregor his “senior advisor.” He seemed to regard him as something like a McEntee operative.
Blinken call with Qatar FM, State readout: “discussed efforts to restore calm in Israel and the West Bank and Gaza in light of the tragic loss of civilian life.”
Blinken call with French FM; State readout: “to discuss their shared concern about ongoing violence in Israel, the West Bank, and Gaza and their engagement with partners in the region to bring about calm.”
Blinken call with Saudi FM @FaisalbinFarhan, State readout: “discussed the ongoing efforts to calm tensions in Israel & the West Bank & Gaza and bring the current violence to an end.”