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Fraser Nelson Profile picture
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28 May, 5 tweets, 2 min read
When Boris Johnson resisted lockdown, was he really being reckless?

My column on what really happened in that September meeting;-

telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/…
In that Sep meeting John Edmunds, a Sage adviser, made his case for lockdown to No10 by showing a controversial graph screen-grabbed from the FT website...
In his No10 presentation, Edmunds said the FT graph "unambiguously" shows "that the key factor for the large number of deaths in the UK was the lateness of our response..."
...but was it really "unambiguous" from that FT chart? Academics had pointed out that it correlates infections with deaths, hardly surprising.
We'll be publishing more of the evidence shown in that September No10 presentation on the Spectator website - including from Sweden's public health agency. It will underline how then, as now, there are no easy answers.

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More from @FraserNelson

Fraser Nelson Profile picture
29 May
After weeks of having lowest Covid in Europe the UK is now creeping up the league as reopening means more cases... data.spectator.co.uk Image
...UK now amongst the more liberal countries in Europe for retail... Image
...with signs of a big economic boom... Image
Read 9 tweets
Fraser Nelson Profile picture
18 Apr
To (quickly) answer a few points on my Sweden column in the Telegraph - its strategy was to minimise all deaths. This meant the ones counted daily (Covid) plus indirect deaths, counted later. On Covid deaths, it's about the European average...
...by avoiding lockdown, Sweden sought to minimise (long-term) collateral damage on society & health. On total 'excess death' last year, it's a bit lower than European average...
...but the age of those who died is also a factor. Lockdowns risk deterring use of health service for cancer, heart disease etc and leading to excess death amongst the under-65s. Deaths in this age group declined in Sweden last year, but rose in UK...
Read 8 tweets
Fraser Nelson Profile picture
15 Apr
Big change in publishing recently has been appetite for original arguments from academics.

Carl Heneghan’s diary in last week’s Spectator was our most-read article: on his work as a GP, lockdown and Twitter trolls

spectator.co.uk/article/the-hi…
Our most-read article yesterday was an in-depth, data-rich analysis by Prof Simon Wood - looking at statistical assumptions and lockdown modelling spectator.co.uk/article/covid-…
We have another one coming on Saturday by Prof Philip Thomas, and I suspect it will be our most-read piece that day too. All told, the digital era has given a chance to get stuck into data-based articles in a way that’s impractical with print.
Read 4 tweets
Fraser Nelson Profile picture
7 Apr
The setback for AstraZeneca vaccine today need to be set in context. By being easily-stored (and made here) UK has protected more people than any comparably-sized country...
The AZ success is reflected not just in trials but antibody studies. Vaccine success has helped 55% of population acquire Covid antibodies: a figure that rises all the time...
This has helped push Covid cases for the over-60s down markedly faster than those of other age groups...
Read 7 tweets
Fraser Nelson Profile picture
2 Apr 20
Is Sweden conducting a crazy experiment - or are we? My Telegraph column, now online. telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/04/0…
Sweden's premise: if you level with the public, share details of Covid battle in real time, you foster trust. People will socially distance on a voluntary basis, "flattening the curve" enough for hospitals to cope. Today, only a quarter of Sweden's intensive care units being used
Big difference with UK is data transparency. Sweden releases live data on Covid patients in real time: here is their Covid portal icuregswe.org/en/data--resul…
Read 6 tweets

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