Thread: How I nailed the exact TOP and BOTTOM on $BTC and $ETH
and why I'm a fu*king idi*ot.
The last few weeks:
- First I did everything right AND lost a decent chunk of money
- Then I made a GIANT mistake, I nailed the exact top and bottom, and made a decent chunk of money
1/ Let's see what happened
At the end of February I started leaning towards a top in $BTC. Pretty much nobody back then was seeing anything like it. Yes, I'm cool like that.
2/ People were screaming for flippenings, $BTC at 100k, $ETH at 10k, productive assets, Django OnChained, Ziupercycles and the rest of the memes.
$alts Ziupercycle:
3/ At the end of April, we had a start of a technical downtrend that even a blind man would have seen (except 9/10 of CT of course, most were still looking at memes).
So, did I get the fuk out right at that moment? No.
4/ No, because the exit plan I use for $alts exposure wasn't giving any signal in that direction.
The signal came when we where already halfway through the nuke, and I took a 30% cut on unrealized profits. See post-mortem here:
/5 So basically I saw the top developing before most and still took a decent chunk of the nuke right in my face.
Was I happy about it? HECK NO
Did I do the right thing? Yes. YES.
Let me repeat: did I do the right thing? YES.
You'll soon see why.
...to be continued, I haz to clean the house (like a real woman)
6/ What happened after this?
On May 23rd I bought the pico-bottom in $BTC (and bought several $alts). Then I sold the exact top 4 days later.
Top-tier trade you would think.
No. Top-tier huge mistake.
Did I have any planned setup for a trade like this? No.
7/ But I almost "felt the trade", you know, when you "feel it". BS.
I made the 30% of unrealized profits back and some.
Was I happy about it? HECK YES (for like an hour, then rage kicked in)
Did I do the right thing? NO. I WAS A TOTAL π€‘ AND MADE A GIANT ROOKIE MISTAKE.
8/ If you don't understand this one you'll have a really hard time trading.
Again, did I have any planned setup for a trade like this? No.
One of the things that fuks most traders up is judging decisions by the outcome.
9/ You can read a good book by Anne Duke on that, "Thinking in Bets".
In the first instance, when I lost money, I made the correct choice: I followed my exit setup that has a verifiable edge over a statistical sequence of trades.
10/ If you don't know what an edge is you shouldn't even be trading.
Having an edge basically means that, mathematically, you have, on a SERIES of trades, statistical probability on your side to win more than you lose.
11/ You're basically acting like a Casino.
You're basically fuking printing.
In the second instance, when I made money, I made the wrong choice, I was just swinging it based on "instincts" and risked digging an even bigger, totally unnecessary hole in my account.
12/ I had no edge whatsoever. I made a mistake and I was LUCKY.
If u can't differentiate between luck and skill, sorry but, again, u shouldn't even be trading.
Lacking this critical thinking skill is why people making boatloads out of nowhere on doggocoins shouldn't trigger you
13/ Will they recognize it's just sheer luck and exit the casino when they're on top? NO.
They will keep betting until the casino takes it all back.
14/ Recap:
A) In one case I made the right decision and had a bad outcome, lost $$$
B) In one case I made the wrong decision and had a good outcome, made $$$
DO NOT - EVER - judge the trades you make by the outcome.
15/ Your job as a trader is to
1. Have a plan 2. With a verifiable edge 3. Just execute the plan 4. Without even thinking about the outcome of the next trade (because it's totally irrelevant in the long run)
16/ If you do that, in the long run, you'll make money, ton of it, effortlessly.
If you don't do that, it's only a matter of time, you will make some money, lose some, make it big, then lose it bigger, until you go back to zero.
Peace out and have a great weekend.
β’ β’ β’
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Post mortem on what happened yesterday on $BTC, $ETH and all the gang.
Take this as an opportunity to step up your game.
Let's start by saying that I lost a decent chunk (30%) of unrealized profits from this bull run in the alts account.
Several things happened:
2/n
- Most people caught in this nuke said "nobody could have predicted it"...my man lol.
- I didn't "predict it", I surely didn't predict the magnitude of the move. What I predicted was that there was a strong possibility of further downside...
3/n
...and that the CT larpers that kept buying every single green 15 minutes candle until the day before were about to nuke their followers.
We were ALREADY in a clean technical downtrend, if you didn't notice.