Two conversations with NYC friends yesterday offered contrasting impressions of NY’s current recovery. One, a high end realtor, said “I think we’re back. My artsy friends have resumed their normal routines of screenings, gallery shows and the rest. Life is returning to normal.”
The other, a businessman who went for a meeting y’day at the Paramount Building on Broadway, said the lobby security man told him that, in normal times, the security desk processed 8,000 visitors/ day. Now 800. Entire floors stand vacant.
Both are valid indicators. Cultural life is rebounding but office-based commercial life is not. The City’s economy, as now configured, cannot sustain prolonged absence of the latter. Same is true in other cities (downtown Boston still a ghost town, according to a lawyer there).
I’m told McKinsey’s world HQ stands mostly empty but the firm is having its “best year ever.” “Knowledge workers,” it seems, have adapted to remote work practices (and like it, for the most part). As expensive office leases come up for renewal, what will the firms do ?
Seems likely they’ll dramatically shrink their office ‘footprint,’ which will leave a lot of space overhanging the market, hitting owners hard. Impact on municipal finances hard to assess.
Bottom line is that NYC’s future remains very uncertain.
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