THREAD on covid and schools:

This week, the ONS infection survey which tests a random representative sample of people in England every week, showed early increases in school age kids.

ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulati… 1/7
Weekly Public Health England data from confirmed cases also shows cases highest in 10-19 year olds.

Cases rose in 5-9 & 10-19 yr olds in March when schools went back. They didn't end April / early May prob cos of low community case rates.

But now they are rising again. 2/7
Above were rates for whole of England.

If we look at the three local authorities with highest levels of new variant B.1.617.2, we can see school age kid rates are *really high* - and higher than their equally unvaxxed 20-24 yr olds. 3/7
We know that PHE surveillance report doesn't receive reports of all school outbreaks.

We know that unions have been asking for PHE to release information on school B.1.617.2 cases since 7 May!
4/7
PHE promised @unisontheunion & @NEUnion they would release it in 22 May report. They didn't.

They promised them they'd release it in 27 May report. They didn't

Observer reported it was in 13 May report but was pulled at Downing street request.
theguardian.com/world/2021/may… 5/7
Covid is clearly spreading in schools - particularly where the new variant is spreading.

This data should be public so we can understand what role schools might be playing in spread of the new variant and protect both schoolchildren, their education and their communities. 6/7
We all need to be calling for this data.

Here I am talking (somewhat angrily) about it in Friday's briefing.
7/7

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More from @chrischirp

31 May
THREAD Some back of the envelope examples about how things could get difficult even with vaccination.

This is *no* replacement for the proper SAGE Spi-M models but gives you the idea. (11 tweets)
Between Oct & early Jan there were about 2.3 million confirmed cases of Covid, 135K hospital admissions & 28K deaths. Hardly anyone was vaccinated.

If we had a similar situation now but WITH vaccination then cases would be lower & admissions (~25K) & deaths (~3K) MUCH lower. Image
I think this is what most people have in their minds when they don't believe it could get bad this summer.

And if cases on same or lower scale then that is true - vaccination (particularly of vulnerable) protects us & the NHS.
Read 12 tweets
31 May
THREAD latest on B.1.617.2 variant in England:

B.1.617.2 (1st discovered in India) is now dominant in England. Here is a thread summarising latest PHE report and Sanger local data.

TLDR: it is NOT good news. 1/7
Firstly, B.1.617.2 is now dominant in England.

This data excludes traveller data and surge testing as much as possible.

In absolute numbers, B.1.617.2 ("India") overtook B.1.1.7 ("Kent") about 15 May.
PHE report estimates a few days earlier. 2/7 ImageImage
B.1.617.2 is now dominant in almost every region of England.

Even NE and Yorks are catching up very fast. 3/7 Image
Read 9 tweets
30 May
THREAD on variants & borders:

SAGE warned in Jan that a red list border policy "geographically targeted travel band" was unlikely to keep variants out.

This is because we don't know in advance where the *next* concerning variant is coming from.

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…
1/11
UK spent Jan & Feb making red list policy about variants discovered in Brazil & S Africa. But wasn't paying any attention to the situation, in say, S Asia.

SAGE also said that red list policy works best if implemented very quickly & if in countries with low UK traffic. 2/11
India has strong travel links with the UK and started its awful surge in March. By 24th March, the Indian govt was warning about a new fast spreading variant.

UK waited until 23rd April before India was added to red list - and it did work to reduce travel. But too late. 3/11
Read 11 tweets
26 May
SHORT THREAD on Scotland & Covid:

Cases in Scotland have been going up since early May.
Cases are rising most steeply and most notably in children and young adults, but have now started rising in older groups as well (but, presumably much reduced by vaccination impact).

chart from @TravellingTabby travellingtabby.com/scotland-coron…
Many argue that it's ok cos the link between cases & hospitalisations has been broken cos of vax.

Regardless that this ignores long covid or potential for further mutation, this is NOT TRUE.

The link has been weakened but NOT broken.

Scottish admissions have started to rise.
Read 6 tweets
25 May
The latest Wellcome Sanger data on local spread of B.1.617.2 (variant of concern 1st seq in India) dropped yesterday. It tries to get at community cases by removing cases from travellers & surge testing.

All regions going up - inc NE & Yorks now.

Flattest in London & SW.
The SW has v few cases and most B.1.617.2 cases are travellers so it's not very useful data.

For London, we need to understand why that is flatterning more than everywhere else.

Also - local "lockdowns" a bit late if aim is to stop spread to other areas!
Oh and here is the overall England proportion of sequenced cases that are B.1.617.2, B.1.1.7 and other variants up to 15th May.
Also from Sanger institute.

Now almost 50% (consistent with Saturday's PHE report).
Read 4 tweets
24 May
SHORT THREAD ON SCHOOLS:
As we open up, schools are becoming the biggest places where large groups of unvaccinated people mix.
This makes them more vulnerable to outbreaks if local cases increase.
But data on what is happening in schools is sparse.
Firstly, twice weekly lateral flow device tests (LFDs) - the government's main mitigation in secondary schools now that they've removed masks - are not really being done.

There should be about 8 million LFDs a week in secondary schools. But we are only seeing 2 million.
Numbers picked up a bit after Easter holidays but are now back to where they were in mid April & at ~25% of expected tests (and that's not counting school staff)

Regardless of how effective an intervention it is, this is the government's main strategy. And it's not being done.
Read 11 tweets

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