Vietnam this month has its largest spike in COVID-19 cases, possibly due to a newly detected variant combining mutations of the variants originally found in the UK and India. This past month has accounted for 50% of cases, and 25% of deaths.

1/
Sequence data is not yet released for the new variant, nor is there extensive analysis of whether the variant is more deadly or more vaccine-evading than previous variants.

2/
Religious events are now banned nationwide, and major cities have closed non-essential business and public parks.

3/
Japan extended its state of emergence to all major cities through June 20, within weeks of the Olympics.

Cases are beginning to decline. A green zone strategy would accelerate elimination.

npr.org/2021/05/28/100…

4/
Over 80% Japanese citizens oppose holding the Olympics. Protests are outside the National Stadium.

Will (1)Gov listen and take adequate measures to ensure a continued decrease in cases? (2)Take stronger action to achieve elimination? (3)Something else

5/
japantimes.co.jp/news/2021/05/1…
[Thanks to @geekblake for helping prepare today's update]

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More from @yaneerbaryam

29 May
Elimination as a global exit strategy:

Stable elimination of COVID-19, which allowed economies to fully reopen, was possible without vaccines, as described in this paper and demonstrated by multiple countries.

1/

nature.com/articles/s4200…

1/
The stability of elimination requires restrictions only in regions that had active uncontained outbreaks; uninfected regions can fully open up.

2/
With (partial) immunity from vaccines, elimination becomes that much easier, as the same restrictions are able to achieve a much faster rate of exponential decline in the number of infections.

3/
Read 7 tweets
28 May
Australia has been enjoying pre-pandemic life for many months except for few day "snap lockdowns."

Victoria, the 2nd most populous state, is now locking down for a week over ‘highly infectious’ variant outbreak (37 total cases)

1/

globalnews.ca/news/7897419/a…
The B1.617.1 variant first found in India, which is now in Victoria, is thought not to be as rapidly transmitting as the B1.617.2 variant that is now dominating in UK.

However, evidence from Australia suggests B1.617.1 is also a much greater challenge to control.

2/
There are two ways the variant seems different.

The first is a shorter time between being infected and infecting someone else.

"Our contact tracers are identifying and locking down first ring, second ring and third ring contacts within 24 hours.

premier.vic.gov.au/statement-acti…

3/
Read 13 tweets
27 May
Argentina imposed new lockdowns with mobility restrictions in most provinces May 22 to control the high surge in COVID-19 cases. Only essential activities are continuing. Social, economic, educational, religious and sports activities are suspended.

1/
xinhuanet.com/english/2021-0…
Turkey has acheived significant decline in cases using a 17-day lockdown. The biggest drops were seen in Erzincan, Istanbul, Karabük, Ağrı, and Karaman.

Relaxing restrictions should be done by region and not by sector. Vaccination helps but keep cases going down.

2/
Greece's decline is not nearly as significant. Time to take stronger action.
Read 4 tweets
26 May
Do Vaccines prevent severe disease and death? Yes and No

An exit strategy using vaccines and social action.

1/
The power of the vaccines has been a dramatic success in humanity’s fight against COVID. There has, however, crept into our conversations a misunderstanding about their effectiveness against severe disease that should be addressed.

2/
Originally, the studies of vaccines tested their action against severe disease and found 90-95% efficacy of the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines. The high efficacy translates into a 10 to 20 fold reduction in severe disease.

3/
Read 21 tweets
23 May
The US new cases continue to decrease in the US and are down to 30,000, deaths are now at 570 per day.

1/
BioNTech announces that it expects the vaccine it developed with Pfizer to be 70-75% effective against the Indian variant.

The continued effectiveness is good news but the reduction indicates the vaccine cannot by itself stop the pandemic.

2/
The pandemic can be stopped by a combination of vaccination and other measures. The key is still to make a decision to achieve elimination.

3/
Read 5 tweets
21 May
Terrible consequence of the new mask CDC guidance is that people cannot protect themselves from infection.

A person who is sick (even if they don't know it) should be wearing a mask to protect others. It is not just wearing a mask that protects a person from being infected.

1/
The new CDC mask guidelines do not follow the science. They are inconsiderate and cruel:

People who need/want to protect themselves cannot.

2/
It should be clear that prevention requires societal responsibility not individual responsibility.

3/
Read 5 tweets

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